Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Austin Peay 27.6, West Florida 23.1 at Pen-Air Field in Week 3. That is a lean: Austin Peay wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 50.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Austin Peay is 2-1, scoring 35.7 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+18.4 per game). West Florida is 2-0, scoring 38 and allowing 22.5 points per game (+15.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Austin Peay by 27 and West Florida by 18 about 80% of the time.
West Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Austin Peay is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Austin Peay 38, West Florida 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17.5 points and the total by 3.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Austin Peay / West Florida) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Austin Peay -9 → Austin Peay -11 | 55.25 | -382 / +284 |
| DraftKings | Austin Peay -6.5 → Austin Peay -10.5 | 55.5 | -382 / +284 |
| Bovada | Austin Peay -11.5 | 55 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | West Florida win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Austin Peay -4.5 | 50.6 | 38% |
| Market consensus | Austin Peay -11 | 55.3 | 25% |
| Blended projection | Austin Peay -10 | 55.4 | 25% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- West Florida win probability
- model 38% · market (no-vig) 25% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Austin Peay -4.5 · market Austin Peay -11 · difference +6.5 pts (West Florida view)
- Total
- model 50.6 · market 55.25 · difference -4.6
Model margin is 6.5 pts more toward West Florida than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Austin Peay 27.6, West Florida 23.1 | Austin Peay 62%right winner | 17.5 | 3.4 |
| New formula | Austin Peay 29.2, West Florida 27.9 | Austin Peay 53%right winner | 20.7 | 3.2 |
Final: Austin Peay 38, West Florida 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Austin Peay schedule · West Florida schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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