Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kentucky 31.9, Vanderbilt 23 at Kroger Field in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Kentucky wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.8 points and 54.9 combined points.
Vanderbilt is 3-4, scoring 23.6 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-6.1 per game). Kentucky (No. 12) is 6-1, scoring 32.7 and allowing 25.9 points per game (+6.8 per game).
Expect Vanderbilt to find it hard going: Kentucky's strong defense (33rd) outranks Vanderbilt's middle-of-the-pack offense (62nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.4 points against an average defense). Kentucky's strong offense (35th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Vanderbilt's middle-of-the-pack defense (65th); that mismatch is where most of Kentucky's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vanderbilt by 14 and Kentucky by 31 about 80% of the time.
Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kentucky by about 6.7. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Vanderbilt 17, Kentucky 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.2 points and the total by 3.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Vanderbilt / Kentucky) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kentucky -10 | 51.5 | +330 / -450 |
| Opening line | Kentucky -9.5 | 52.5 | +285 / -360 |
| DraftKings | Kentucky -9.5 | 51.5 | +330 / -425 |
| FanDuel | Kentucky -10.5 | 51.5 | +350 / -450 |
| BetRivers | Kentucky -11 | 51 | +350 / -500 |
| BetMGM | Kentucky -10 | 51.5 | +320 / -425 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kentucky win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kentucky -9 | 54.9 | 72% |
| Market consensus | Kentucky -10 | 51.5 | 78% |
| Blended projection | Kentucky -10 | 52.4 | 75% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kentucky win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 78% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Kentucky -8.8 · market Kentucky -10 · difference -1.2 pts (Kentucky view)
- Total
- model 54.9 · market 51.5 · difference +3.4
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Vanderbilt than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Vanderbilt 23.0, Kentucky 31.9 | Kentucky 72%right winner | 8.2 | 3.9 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Vanderbilt 17, Kentucky 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.5#8 | 23.0#101 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.8#47 | 26.4#75 |
| Yards per play | 7.67#1 | 5.56#94 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.75#62 | 5.96#89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 184.2#48 | 155.8#82 |
| Net passing yards per game | 287.2#10 | 211.9#88 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 128.3#19 | 147.6#41 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 238.5#105 | 244.6#114 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.77#24 | 1.33#109 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#71 | 1.17#53 |
| Sacks per game | 2.31#39 | 2.08#58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.85#79 | 2.25#102 |
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.30#1 | -0.03#109 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#102 | +0.02#80 |
| Success rate | 52.1%#1 | 42.0%#76 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5%#65 | 44.4%#103 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.9%#5 | 10.9%#116 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0%#59 | 12.2%#63 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#69 | 13.0%#57 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#67 | 11.7%#57 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.28#1 | 4.03#62 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83#65 | 4.05#91 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#61 | own 30#53 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#58 | own 29#63 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.5#120 | 66.2#67 |
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#5 | +0.04#62 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.38#1 | -0.11#117 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#34 | -0.03#46 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16#120 | +0.07#93 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.9%#10 | 45.4%#47 |
| Passing success rate | 54.1%#3 | 38.4%#101 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5%#53 | 16.5%#38 |
| Passing-down success rate | 48.7%#1 | 26.7%#113 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.1%#78 | 30.5%#83 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.6%#6 | 41.7%#59 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.2%#115 | 42.3%#92 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#5 | 66.7%#36 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#68 | 67.4%#113 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Vanderbilt schedule · Kentucky schedule · all Week 8 projections
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