Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia 41.2, Vanderbilt 17.6 at Sanford Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Georgia wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23.6 points and 58.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Vanderbilt is 3-1, scoring 28.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (+6.5 per game). Georgia (No. 2) is 4-0, scoring 54.8 and allowing 13.3 points per game (+41.5 per game).
Expect Vanderbilt to find it hard going: Georgia's elite defense (6th) outranks Vanderbilt's strong offense (39th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.8 points against an average defense). Georgia's elite offense (1st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Vanderbilt's strong defense (34th); that mismatch is where most of Georgia's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia by 1 and Georgia by 46 about 80% of the time.
Georgia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia by about 21.5. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Vanderbilt 14, Georgia 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.4 points and the total by 6.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Vanderbilt / Georgia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia -24.25 → Georgia -25.5 | 55 → 50.25 | +1250 / -3350 |
| DraftKings | Georgia -23.5 → Georgia -25.5 | 57.5 → 49.5 | +1400 / -3200 |
| Bovada | Georgia -25 → Georgia -25.5 | 52.5 → 51 | +1100 / -3500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia -23.5 | 58.7 | 94% |
| Market consensus | Georgia -25.5 | 50.3 | 93% |
| Blended projection | Georgia -25.5 | 51.5 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia win probability
- model 94% · market (no-vig) 93% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia -23.6 · market Georgia -25.5 · difference -1.9 pts (Georgia view)
- Total
- model 58.7 · market 50.25 · difference +8.5
Model margin is 1.9 pts more toward Vanderbilt than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Vanderbilt 17.6, Georgia 41.2 | Georgia 94%right winner | 0.4 | 6.7 |
| New formula | Vanderbilt 17.6, Georgia 40.2 | Georgia 93%right winner | 1.4 | 5.9 |
Final: Vanderbilt 14, Georgia 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Vanderbilt vs Georgia: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3#82 | 54.8#1 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.8#60 | 13.3#18 |
| Yards per play | 5.62#107 | 8.01#5 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.04#42 | 4.00#1 |
| Rushing yards per game | 141.0#111 | 223.8#26 |
| Net passing yards per game | 223.0#74 | 232.8#63 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.3#63 | 79.3#4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 171.3#36 | 178.8#42 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#56 | 0.25#6 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#30 | 1.50#16 |
| Sacks per game | 3.25#13 | 2.50#34 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#56 | 1.00#25 |
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#50 | +0.16#39 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#43 | -0.09#16 |
| Success rate | 43.2%#72 | 49.9%#17 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.0%#24 | 34.2%#13 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#107 | 16.8%#11 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7%#73 | 9.4%#17 |
| Havoc rate | 15.4%#44 | 15.8%#35 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#24 | 11.9%#47 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.82#97 | 5.08#14 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.82#70 | 3.94#80 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#65 | own 36#9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#16 | own 28#57 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#76 | 57.0#131 |
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#30 | +0.16#29 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#58 | +0.15#57 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#82 | -0.15#9 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#27 | -0.06#38 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.6%#88 | 57.5%#5 |
| Passing success rate | 43.8%#67 | 54.2%#14 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.7%#40 | 16.4%#67 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4%#96 | 29.7%#85 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.0%#44 | 23.0%#14 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.7%#123 | 55.3%#10 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.1%#31 | 36.7%#65 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.4%#36 | 78.0%#11 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.5%#10 | 69.4%#110 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Vanderbilt schedule · Georgia schedule · all Week 5 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.