Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 18 at FirstBank Stadium in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: Alabama wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20 points and 56 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Alabama (No. 10) is 6-2 against the 3rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.3 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+17 per game). Vanderbilt is 3-5 against the 18th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.8 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-7.5 per game).
Alabama's elite offense (5th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 39.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Vanderbilt's middle-of-the-pack defense (65th); that mismatch is where most of Alabama's projected points come from. Expect Vanderbilt to find it hard going: Alabama's elite defense (9th) outranks Vanderbilt's middle-of-the-pack offense (62nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama by 43 and Vanderbilt by 3 about 80% of the time.
Vanderbilt gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alabama is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Alabama vs Vanderbilt: stat comparison
| Stat | Alabama | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.3#13 | 22.8#106 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3#50 | 30.3#113 |
| Yards per play | 6.64#28 | 5.68#96 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70#75 | 5.72#80 |
| Rushing yards per game | 166.5#70 | 116.9#130 |
| Net passing yards per game | 246.9#47 | 233.8#58 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 121.1#24 | 162.9#85 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.4#106 | 204.4#62 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#97 | 1.25#117 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#3 | 0.75#84 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#34 | 2.00#67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.88#124 | 1.75#62 |
| Stat | Alabama | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#32 | +0.10#61 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00#45 | +0.13#113 |
| Success rate | 46.8%#32 | 41.3%#94 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6%#29 | 45.3%#123 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.1%#12 | 12.4%#73 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3%#83 | 11.7%#69 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#45 | 11.5%#119 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3%#129 | 13.5%#74 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.73#26 | 3.95#85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.55#119 | 4.68#126 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#17 | own 28#99 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#11 | own 27#35 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.3#104 | 61.8#111 |
| Stat | Alabama | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#35 | +0.07#74 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21#33 | +0.12#59 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | 0.00#56 | +0.11#106 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00#49 | +0.14#99 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.4%#27 | 39.4%#109 |
| Passing success rate | 45.4%#42 | 43.0%#58 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0%#98 | 17.2%#73 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.3%#54 | 29.7%#96 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2%#65 | 31.1%#92 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.2%#54 | 41.5%#68 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.2%#45 | 43.0%#111 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 82.4%#4 | 69.6%#35 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.0%#93 | 70.4%#121 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama schedule · Vanderbilt schedule · all Week 11 projections
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