Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Vanderbilt 29.5, Arkansas 22.4 at FirstBank Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Vanderbilt wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.1 points and 51.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Arkansas is 2-4, scoring 19.3 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-8.4 per game). Vanderbilt is 3-3, scoring 24 and allowing 29.5 points per game (-5.5 per game).
Vanderbilt's middle-of-the-pack defense (60th) should limit Arkansas's below-average offense (92nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Vanderbilt's middle-of-the-pack offense (53rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.3 points against an average defense) against Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (81st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas by 15 and Vanderbilt by 30 about 80% of the time.
Vanderbilt gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vanderbilt by about 5. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21. Arkansas won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 17.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arkansas / Vanderbilt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Vanderbilt -6.5 → Vanderbilt -5.75 | 50.5 → 48.75 | +190 / -230 |
| DraftKings | Vanderbilt -6.5 → Vanderbilt -5.5 | 50.5 → 48.5 | +185 / -225 |
| Bovada | Vanderbilt -6.5 → Vanderbilt -6 | 50.5 → 49 | +195 / -235 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Vanderbilt win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Vanderbilt -7 | 51.9 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Vanderbilt -6 | 48.8 | 67% |
| Blended projection | Vanderbilt -6 | 49.8 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Vanderbilt win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 67% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Vanderbilt -7.1 · market Vanderbilt -5.75 · difference +1.3 pts (Vanderbilt view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 48.75 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward Vanderbilt than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas 22.4, Vanderbilt 29.5 | Vanderbilt 68%wrong winner | 17.1 | 0.1 |
| New formula | Arkansas 21.8, Vanderbilt 30.6 | Vanderbilt 72%wrong winner | 18.8 | 0.3 |
Final: Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas vs Vanderbilt: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Arkansas | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.3#119 | 24.0#97 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7#103 | 29.5#117 |
| Yards per play | 4.91#131 | 5.52#108 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.09#103 | 5.64#76 |
| Rushing yards per game | 115.3#129 | 130.2#117 |
| Net passing yards per game | 216.7#78 | 220.3#76 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 161.7#82 | 157.2#72 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.7#53 | 198.0#65 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17#95 | 1.00#74 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#63 | 1.00#51 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#101 | 2.50#31 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#118 | 1.67#66 |
| Stat | Arkansas | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08#130 | +0.13#55 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#113 | +0.09#99 |
| Success rate | 42.0%#85 | 40.9%#95 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8%#102 | 43.3%#96 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7%#128 | 11.3%#107 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2%#101 | 12.0%#77 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#75 | 12.3%#103 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#109 | 12.2%#47 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.63#106 | 3.86#91 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.20#136 | 4.77#126 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#114 | own 29#85 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#100 | own 26#32 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.7#48 | 63.5#91 |
| Stat | Arkansas | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09#127 | +0.12#49 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#119 | +0.13#57 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.25#136 | +0.08#93 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#47 | +0.09#91 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.4%#102 | 40.4%#103 |
| Passing success rate | 43.3%#62 | 41.4%#82 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1%#89 | 16.8%#66 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.9%#117 | 27.6%#104 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.0%#6 | 30.5%#84 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.0%#77 | 38.6%#89 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.4%#115 | 38.5%#74 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.2%#117 | 68.4%#43 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 84.0%#136 | 66.7%#104 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas schedule · Vanderbilt schedule · all Week 7 projections
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