Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tennessee 29.9, South Carolina 25.7 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Tennessee wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 55.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Tennessee (No. 11) is 6-1, scoring 33.4 and allowing 14.7 points per game (+18.7 per game). South Carolina is 3-3, scoring 37.7 and allowing 25.5 points per game (+12.2 per game).
Tennessee's elite offense (10th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over South Carolina's strong defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Tennessee's projected points come from. South Carolina's strong offense (19th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) meets Tennessee's elite defense (12th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points South Carolina puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tennessee by 27 and South Carolina by 18 about 80% of the time.
South Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tennessee is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN/Disney+.
Result: Tennessee 24, South Carolina 27. South Carolina won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tennessee / South Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Carolina -2.5 | 50.5 | +110 / -135 |
| Opening line | Tennessee -2.5 | 51.5 | -130 / +110 |
| DraftKings | South Carolina -2.5 | 50.5 | +114 / -135 |
| FanDuel | South Carolina -2.5 | 50.5 | +108 / -130 |
| BetRivers | South Carolina -2.5 | 51 | +110 / -136 |
| BetMGM | South Carolina -2.5 | 50.5 | +110 / -135 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tennessee -4 | 55.6 | 39% |
| Market consensus | South Carolina -2.5 | 50.5 | 53% |
| Blended projection | South Carolina -1.5 | 51.6 | 54% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Carolina win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference -14 pts
- Margin
- model Tennessee -4.2 · market South Carolina -2.5 · difference -6.7 pts (South Carolina view)
- Total
- model 55.6 · market 50.5 · difference +5.1
Model margin is 6.7 pts more toward Tennessee than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tennessee 29.9, South Carolina 25.7 | Tennessee 61%wrong winner | 7.2 | 4.6 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Tennessee 24, South Carolina 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tennessee vs South Carolina: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tennessee | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.8#6 | 22.7#104 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8#91 | 22.1#44 |
| Yards per play | 6.90#14 | 5.67#84 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89#76 | 5.63#52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.4#46 | 143.5#102 |
| Net passing yards per game | 305.2#5 | 208.9#91 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.2#84 | 149.4#45 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 243.1#110 | 223.3#79 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#63 | 1.25#98 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.31#33 | 1.17#54 |
| Sacks per game | 2.54#25 | 1.50#104 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.69#58 | 3.42#131 |
| Stat | Tennessee | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#10 | -0.09#123 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#96 | -0.02#51 |
| Success rate | 50.8%#5 | 37.0%#123 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1%#98 | 41.8%#72 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#17 | 13.0%#50 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2%#95 | 12.6%#75 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#46 | 12.1%#79 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.2%#6 | 15.6%#127 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.75#11 | 2.96#133 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.19#106 | 3.52#33 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#74 | own 27#129 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#38 | own 30#78 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.1#19 | 62.2#118 |
| Stat | Tennessee | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#14 | -0.09#125 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#17 | -0.09#110 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11#124 | -0.07#22 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#71 | +0.04#82 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.1%#4 | 38.9%#109 |
| Passing success rate | 49.4%#9 | 35.2%#121 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.4%#8 | 17.3%#52 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.4%#23 | 23.7%#130 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9%#24 | 29.6%#72 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.9%#8 | 34.0%#126 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.0%#85 | 40.0%#59 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.1%#17 | 62.5%#57 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.1%#125 | 46.5%#8 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tennessee schedule · South Carolina schedule · all Week 8 projections
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