Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama 33.2, Tennessee 25.3 at Neyland Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Alabama wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.9 points and 58.5 combined points.
Alabama (No. 6) is 5-1, scoring 44.2 and allowing 20.7 points per game (+23.5 per game). Tennessee (No. 14) is 5-1, scoring 34.7 and allowing 15.5 points per game (+19.2 per game).
Alabama's elite offense (4th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.9 points against an average defense) meets Tennessee's strong defense (16th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Alabama puts up. Tennessee's elite offense (11th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.8 points against an average defense) meets Alabama's elite defense (8th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Tennessee puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama by 30 and Tennessee by 15 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alabama is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Result: Alabama 10, Tennessee 26. Tennessee won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 23.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alabama / Tennessee) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama -4.25 → Alabama -7.75 | 55 → 50.75 | -285 / +232.5 |
| DraftKings | Alabama -1.5 → Alabama -7.5 | 56.5 → 50.5 | -310 / +250 |
| Bovada | Alabama -7 → Alabama -8 | 53.5 → 51 | -260 / +215 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tennessee win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama -8 | 58.5 | 30% |
| Market consensus | Alabama -7.5 | 50.8 | 29% |
| Blended projection | Alabama -8 | 51.9 | 30% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tennessee win probability
- model 30% · market (no-vig) 29% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama -7.9 · market Alabama -7.75 · difference -0.2 pts (Tennessee view)
- Total
- model 58.5 · market 50.75 · difference +7.8
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alabama 33.2, Tennessee 25.3 | Alabama 70%wrong winner | 23.9 | 22.5 |
| New formula | Alabama 32.8, Tennessee 25.4 | Alabama 69%wrong winner | 23.4 | 22.2 |
Final: Alabama 10, Tennessee 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alabama vs Tennessee: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Alabama | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 44.2#3 | 34.7#45 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.7#45 | 15.5#19 |
| Yards per play | 6.95#18 | 6.19#62 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.88#92 | 5.09#33 |
| Rushing yards per game | 194.7#46 | 245.7#8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.0#47 | 173.5#116 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 115.5#22 | 157.5#73 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 244.2#117 | 155.5#14 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83#61 | 0.50#28 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.17#4 | 1.00#49 |
| Sacks per game | 2.83#16 | 4.00#1 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#117 | 2.83#124 |
| Stat | Alabama | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.26#7 | +0.07#79 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#55 | -0.11#10 |
| Success rate | 49.7%#17 | 43.4%#66 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.9%#22 | 39.6%#51 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.4%#6 | 12.3%#86 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8%#109 | 10.2%#30 |
| Havoc rate | 16.9%#19 | 18.0%#8 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7%#105 | 13.7%#88 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.25#6 | 4.71#29 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.52#117 | 2.99#9 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#22 | own 30#67 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#9 | own 27#39 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.2#86 | 67.7#49 |
| Stat | Alabama | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.24#5 | +0.23#6 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#25 | -0.15#126 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#56 | +0.07#87 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#59 | -0.27#3 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.3%#4 | 48.8%#32 |
| Passing success rate | 46.2%#37 | 35.9%#119 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8%#65 | 12.3%#12 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.0%#30 | 24.5%#123 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.6%#54 | 25.8%#32 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.6%#25 | 38.2%#94 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.0%#41 | 34.2%#36 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 85.7%#2 | 76.7%#11 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 70.6%#116 | 47.4%#23 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama schedule · Tennessee schedule · all Week 7 projections
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