Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tennessee 36.1, Arkansas 19.2 at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Tennessee wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.9 points and 55.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Tennessee (No. 15) is 4-1, scoring 36.8 and allowing 15.2 points per game (+21.6 per game). Arkansas is 2-3, scoring 19.8 and allowing 28.4 points per game (-8.6 per game).
Tennessee's elite offense (8th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Arkansas's below-average defense (84th); that mismatch is where most of Tennessee's projected points come from. Expect Arkansas to find it hard going: Tennessee's strong defense (17th) outranks Arkansas's below-average offense (87th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tennessee by 39 and Arkansas by 6 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tennessee is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Tennessee 24, Arkansas 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.9 points and the total by 14.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tennessee / Arkansas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tennessee -13.5 → Tennessee -13.75 | 50.75 → 51.5 | -580 / +417.5 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee -13.5 | 51.5 | -575 / +425 |
| Bovada | Tennessee -13.5 → Tennessee -14 | 50 → 51.5 | -585 / +410 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arkansas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tennessee -17 | 55.2 | 13% |
| Market consensus | Tennessee -13.5 | 51.5 | 18% |
| Blended projection | Tennessee -14.5 | 52.4 | 16% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arkansas win probability
- model 13% · market (no-vig) 18% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Tennessee -16.9 · market Tennessee -13.75 · difference -3.1 pts (Arkansas view)
- Total
- model 55.2 · market 51.5 · difference +3.7
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward Tennessee than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tennessee 36.1, Arkansas 19.2 | Tennessee 87%right winner | 9.9 | 14.2 |
| New formula | Tennessee 37.5, Arkansas 17.8 | Tennessee 90%right winner | 12.7 | 14.3 |
Final: Tennessee 24, Arkansas 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tennessee vs Arkansas: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Tennessee | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.8#34 | 19.8#115 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.2#21 | 28.4#108 |
| Yards per play | 6.08#75 | 4.93#132 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.15#40 | 5.94#101 |
| Rushing yards per game | 260.2#10 | 108.4#133 |
| Net passing yards per game | 157.2#125 | 232.6#65 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.0#77 | 159.4#78 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 159.2#24 | 181.4#43 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.20#5 | 1.20#92 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#48 | 0.60#100 |
| Sacks per game | 4.40#1 | 1.60#87 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.20#129 | 2.80#120 |
| Stat | Tennessee | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#83 | -0.08#126 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13#5 | +0.14#112 |
| Success rate | 43.2%#71 | 41.3%#94 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3%#42 | 43.6%#101 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#96 | 9.6%#129 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#30 | 12.9%#98 |
| Havoc rate | 18.2%#8 | 12.9%#92 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#71 | 14.0%#89 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.92#15 | 3.54#114 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.76#4 | 5.50#137 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#63 | own 28#106 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#43 | own 31#101 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.6#44 | 69.2#39 |
| Stat | Tennessee | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.25#5 | -0.12#133 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.20#133 | -0.05#113 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#95 | +0.27#136 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.30#4 | -0.03#47 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.4%#32 | 38.3%#113 |
| Passing success rate | 35.7%#122 | 43.7%#66 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.3%#5 | 17.8%#84 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.3%#116 | 27.8%#99 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4%#48 | 21.5%#7 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.5%#97 | 44.4%#55 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.9%#61 | 45.0%#117 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 78.6%#8 | 50.0%#115 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 42.9%#15 | 85.7%#134 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tennessee schedule · Arkansas schedule · all Week 6 projections
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