Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tennessee 34.9, Auburn 19.8 at Neyland Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Tennessee wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.1 points and 54.8 combined points.
Auburn is 3-1, scoring 30 and allowing 20.8 points per game (+9.2 per game). Tennessee (No. 17) is 3-1, scoring 40 and allowing 15.5 points per game (+24.5 per game).
Expect Auburn to find it hard going: Tennessee's strong defense (14th) outranks Auburn's middle-of-the-pack offense (58th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense). Tennessee's elite offense (7th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Auburn's strong defense (36th); that mismatch is where most of Tennessee's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Auburn by 7 and Tennessee by 38 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tennessee by about 13. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Auburn 14, Tennessee 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.1 points and the total by 16.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Auburn / Tennessee) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tennessee -7.5 → Tennessee -6.25 | 56 → 54.25 | +215 / -260 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee -7.5 → Tennessee -6 | 57.5 → 54.5 | +190 / -230 |
| Bovada | Tennessee -7.5 → Tennessee -6.5 | 54.5 → 54 | +240 / -290 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tennessee win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tennessee -15 | 54.8 | 84% |
| Market consensus | Tennessee -6.5 | 54.3 | 69% |
| Blended projection | Tennessee -7.5 | 54.7 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tennessee win probability
- model 84% · market (no-vig) 69% · difference +15 pts
- Margin
- model Tennessee -15.1 · market Tennessee -6.25 · difference +8.9 pts (Tennessee view)
- Total
- model 54.8 · market 54.25 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 8.9 pts more toward Tennessee than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Auburn 19.8, Tennessee 34.9 | Tennessee 84%right winner | 5.1 | 16.8 |
| New formula | Auburn 19.5, Tennessee 35.2 | Tennessee 85%right winner | 5.6 | 16.7 |
Final: Auburn 14, Tennessee 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Auburn vs Tennessee: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Auburn | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.0#75 | 40.0#23 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.8#51 | 15.5#28 |
| Yards per play | 5.80#92 | 6.27#65 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.02#40 | 4.95#37 |
| Rushing yards per game | 188.8#48 | 263.0#10 |
| Net passing yards per game | 218.5#82 | 176.0#110 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 143.5#67 | 148.8#78 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 236.5#105 | 154.5#22 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#94 | 0.00#1 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#27 | 0.75#81 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#33 | 4.50#1 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.50#133 | 3.25#131 |
| Stat | Auburn | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#80 | +0.08#77 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#65 | -0.15#4 |
| Success rate | 42.3%#80 | 43.7%#66 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.9%#54 | 37.6%#37 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#33 | 12.7%#77 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.0%#4 | 9.5%#21 |
| Havoc rate | 14.6%#62 | 19.6%#3 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.1%#106 | 13.1%#74 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.21#64 | 5.29#7 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.45#46 | 2.89#10 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#89 | own 29#81 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#50 | own 28#58 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.3#30 | 70.0#31 |
| Stat | Auburn | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#66 | +0.24#7 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#79 | -0.13#126 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#43 | -0.01#59 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#89 | -0.26#6 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.4%#70 | 48.6%#34 |
| Passing success rate | 40.3%#89 | 37.1%#113 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3%#52 | 11.8%#14 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.4%#33 | 29.6%#88 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6%#84 | 25.7%#39 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.3%#35 | 41.2%#76 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8%#55 | 36.5%#63 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.3%#74 | 83.3%#6 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.3%#73 | 36.4%#9 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Auburn schedule · Tennessee schedule · all Week 5 projections
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