Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected LSU 30.6, Kentucky 22.3 at Kroger Field in Week 6. That is a solid edge: LSU wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.3 points and 52.8 combined points.
LSU (No. 10) is 4-1, scoring 43.6 and allowing 15.2 points per game (+28.4 per game). Kentucky is 4-1, scoring 34.6 and allowing 26.8 points per game (+7.8 per game).
LSU's elite offense (9th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kentucky's middle-of-the-pack defense (46th); that mismatch is where most of LSU's projected points come from. Expect Kentucky to find it hard going: LSU's elite defense (12th) outranks Kentucky's middle-of-the-pack offense (42nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between LSU by 31 and Kentucky by 14 about 80% of the time.
Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. LSU is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: LSU 34, Kentucky 35. Kentucky won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (LSU / Kentucky) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | LSU -10.25 → LSU -9.25 | 52.5 → 50.5 | -375 / +290 |
| Bovada | LSU -10 → LSU -9 | 55.5 → 50.5 | -390 / +295 |
| DraftKings | LSU -10.5 → LSU -9.5 | 49.5 → 50.5 | -360 / +285 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kentucky win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | LSU -8.5 | 52.8 | 29% |
| Market consensus | LSU -9 | 50.5 | 25% |
| Blended projection | LSU -9 | 51.4 | 27% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kentucky win probability
- model 29% · market (no-vig) 25% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model LSU -8.3 · market LSU -9.25 · difference +0.9 pts (Kentucky view)
- Total
- model 52.8 · market 50.5 · difference +2.3
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward Kentucky than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | LSU 30.6, Kentucky 22.3 | LSU 71%wrong winner | 9.3 | 16.2 |
| New formula | LSU 32.3, Kentucky 22.0 | LSU 75%wrong winner | 11.3 | 14.7 |
Final: LSU 34, Kentucky 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
LSU vs Kentucky: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | LSU | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 43.6#9 | 34.6#48 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.2#20 | 26.8#101 |
| Yards per play | 6.92#26 | 6.66#43 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.28#5 | 5.39#61 |
| Rushing yards per game | 239.0#17 | 200.4#42 |
| Net passing yards per game | 334.0#7 | 224.6#71 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 88.0#8 | 154.0#70 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 152.8#15 | 227.4#95 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.60#129 | 0.40#18 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.60#11 | 1.20#32 |
| Sacks per game | 4.00#2 | 2.00#58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.40#48 | 2.20#95 |
| Stat | LSU | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#54 | +0.14#46 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.33#1 | +0.07#85 |
| Success rate | 47.8%#28 | 50.7%#9 |
| Success rate allowed | 26.8%#1 | 44.8%#110 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.3%#11 | 15.4%#20 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#19 | 10.3%#29 |
| Havoc rate | 23.4%#1 | 13.2%#83 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#68 | 11.4%#34 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.63#40 | 4.90#19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.58#118 | 3.85#72 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#19 | own 31#44 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#26 | own 31#107 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 82.8#1 | 63.8#90 |
| Stat | LSU | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#49 | +0.17#27 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#58 | +0.10#66 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.26#1 | +0.15#122 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.37#1 | -0.00#54 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.5%#59 | 55.9%#3 |
| Passing success rate | 49.3%#25 | 45.2%#50 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.5%#37 | 14.5%#36 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.6%#14 | 30.0%#81 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.8%#19 | 41.1%#132 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 57.1%#7 | 26.4%#137 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.9%#25 | 47.2%#128 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.0%#36 | 76.2%#13 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 85.7%#135 | 71.4%#115 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: LSU schedule · Kentucky schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.