Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oklahoma 28.6, Kentucky 18.7 at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Oklahoma wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.9 points and 47.2 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Kentucky (No. 15) is 5-1, scoring 34.7 and allowing 28 points per game (+6.7 per game). Oklahoma is 3-2, scoring 23 and allowing 17.6 points per game (+5.4 per game).
Oklahoma's elite defense (7th) should limit Kentucky's strong offense (38th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.4 points against an average defense). Oklahoma's middle-of-the-pack offense (50th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.1 points against an average defense) meets Kentucky's strong defense (41st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Oklahoma puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kentucky by 13 and Oklahoma by 32 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oklahoma by about 7.8. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13. Kentucky won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 17.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kentucky / Oklahoma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma -6.75 | 42.5 → 44 | +217.5 / -265 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma -6.5 → Oklahoma -7 | 41.5 → 44.5 | +220 / -270 |
| Bovada | Oklahoma -7 → Oklahoma -6.5 | 43.5 | +215 / -260 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oklahoma -10 | 47.2 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma -7 | 44.0 | 70% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma -7.5 | 45.5 | 69% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 70% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Oklahoma -9.9 · market Oklahoma -6.75 · difference +3.2 pts (Oklahoma view)
- Total
- model 47.2 · market 44 · difference +3.2
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward Oklahoma than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kentucky 18.7, Oklahoma 28.6 | Oklahoma 74%wrong winner | 17.9 | 13.2 |
| New formula | Kentucky 18.1, Oklahoma 27.8 | Oklahoma 74%wrong winner | 17.6 | 11.9 |
Final: Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kentucky vs Oklahoma: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Kentucky | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.7#44 | 23.0#101 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0#108 | 17.6#28 |
| Yards per play | 6.53#41 | 5.39#116 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.51#67 | 4.99#29 |
| Rushing yards per game | 193.8#47 | 113.6#131 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.2#69 | 211.8#82 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 147.7#60 | 138.2#46 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.5#114 | 142.2#5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#14 | 1.40#121 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#20 | 0.60#105 |
| Sacks per game | 2.17#51 | 3.00#13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#86 | 2.20#99 |
| Stat | Kentucky | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#56 | -0.07#128 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#95 | -0.16#2 |
| Success rate | 49.5%#18 | 36.4%#127 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9%#119 | 32.3%#3 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5%#33 | 9.2%#133 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#35 | 9.3%#15 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#77 | 16.9%#20 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2%#28 | 18.4%#136 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.62#35 | 3.81#95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.05#81 | 2.68#2 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#28 | own 27#115 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#101 | own 34#135 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.5#82 | 60.4#114 |
| Stat | Kentucky | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#24 | -0.15#136 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#73 | +0.00#104 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#113 | -0.10#14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#75 | -0.22#5 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.6%#2 | 33.1%#135 |
| Passing success rate | 45.4%#40 | 39.4%#97 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7%#48 | 23.5%#134 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.2%#90 | 26.2%#115 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 44.4%#137 | 25.6%#26 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.4%#133 | 35.4%#110 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.2%#127 | 23.8%#2 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.5%#59 | 55.6%#102 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.0%#108 | 36.4%#2 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kentucky schedule · Oklahoma schedule · all Week 7 projections
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