Matchup analysis
Our model projects Georgia 34, Missouri 19 at Sanford Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Georgia wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.2 points and 52.2 combined points.
Missouri (No. 23) is 5-2 against the 30th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.1 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+11.5 per game). Georgia (No. 3) is 6-1 against the 52nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 43 and allowing 15.9 points per game (+27.1 per game).
Georgia's elite defense (7th) should limit Missouri's strong offense (39th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.1 points against an average defense). Georgia's elite offense (3rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.4 points against an average defense) meets Missouri's strong defense (16th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Georgia puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri by 7 and Georgia by 38 about 80% of the time.
Georgia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia by about 13.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Missouri vs Georgia: stat comparison
| Stat | Missouri | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.1#54 | 43.0#3 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.6#31 | 15.9#16 |
| Yards per play | 6.35#46 | 7.69#3 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.27#44 | 4.65#10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.1#73 | 202.1#31 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.9#30 | 255.7#39 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 130.0#36 | 116.0#19 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.6#94 | 177.7#24 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#15 | 0.57#29 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#47 | 1.14#33 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#22 | 3.00#10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#14 | 1.14#22 |
| Stat | Missouri | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#55 | +0.24#7 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#22 | -0.05#25 |
| Success rate | 40.9%#98 | 53.4%#1 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.1%#16 | 34.4%#7 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#41 | 17.3%#5 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#78 | 9.7%#17 |
| Havoc rate | 17.6%#11 | 15.9%#25 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4%#100 | 10.6%#18 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72#99 | 5.22#2 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.92#81 | 3.73#59 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#13 | own 31#40 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#8 | own 28#41 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.7#52 | 59.6#122 |
| Stat | Missouri | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#127 | +0.19#13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#18 | +0.30#15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#17 | -0.07#23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#38 | -0.04#37 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.9%#131 | 52.8%#2 |
| Passing success rate | 45.7%#40 | 54.5%#4 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8%#109 | 14.2%#20 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9%#90 | 39.4%#12 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.6%#21 | 23.2%#6 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.4%#62 | 56.9%#3 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.7%#58 | 39.0%#73 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.3%#123 | 83.3%#2 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#32 | 72.9%#128 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Missouri schedule · Georgia schedule · all Week 11 projections
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