Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Missouri 48.1, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 3.4 at Memorial Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Missouri wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 44.6 points and 51.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 1-0, scoring 35 and allowing 15 points per game (+20 per game). Missouri has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Missouri's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri by 22 and Missouri by 67 about 80% of the time.
Missouri gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Missouri by about 42.5. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 14, Missouri 54. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.6 points and the total by 16.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arkansas-Pine Bluff / Missouri) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Missouri -54.5 → Missouri -55.5 | 60.5 → 62.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Missouri -54.5 → Missouri -55.5 | 60.5 → 62.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Missouri win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Missouri -44.5 | 51.5 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Missouri -55.5 | 62.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Missouri -54 | 61.7 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Missouri win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Missouri -44.6 · market Missouri -55.5 · difference -10.9 pts (Missouri view)
- Total
- model 51.5 · market 62.5 · difference -11.0
Model margin is 10.9 pts more toward Arkansas-Pine Bluff than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas-Pine Bluff 3.4, Missouri 48.1 | Missouri 100%right winner | 4.6 | 16.5 |
| New formula | Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1.0, Missouri 53.0 | Missouri 100%right winner | 12.0 | 14.0 |
Final: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 14, Missouri 54. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Missouri: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.0 | 30.2#44 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.5 | 18.9#17 |
| Yards per play | 5.22 | 6.18#40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.02 | 4.93#10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.6 | 244.4#7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 194.9 | 189.2#105 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 250.4 | 124.9#15 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 249.0 | 173.2#13 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.73 | 1.00#61 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 0.85#89 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 2.69#14 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 2.08#88 |
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.08#37 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | -0.08#20 |
| Success rate | 36.1% | 45.0%#43 |
| Success rate allowed | 48.1% | 34.8%#8 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7% | 13.2%#44 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.3% | 8.9%#6 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9% | 14.4%#20 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5% | 10.5%#23 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.84 | 4.11#48 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.29 | 3.58#40 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | own 29#88 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 29#65 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9 | 70.2#26 |
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.15#12 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.01#88 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16 | -0.06#27 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.10#30 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8% | 48.1%#19 |
| Passing success rate | 33.8% | 41.2%#64 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4% | 16.3%#37 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.4% | 30.9%#63 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.3% | 27.5%#32 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 46.9%#26 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.3% | 37.0%#38 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.4% | 66.0%#39 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.9% | 57.1%#48 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas-Pine Bluff schedule · Missouri schedule · all Week 1 projections
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