2026 schedule
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
2026 season so far
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 4-3 against the 99th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.6 and allowing 30.9 points per game (+1.7 per game).
Arkansas-Pine Bluff plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Bethune-Cookman in Week 9. We project Arkansas-Pine Bluff 30, Bethune-Cookman 28 — Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins 57% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Morehouse College Maroon Tigers
0-1 · SOS #140
Win 35-15
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Morehouse College by 3.7
Total 54.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 20. 50 points. No book line was saved for this game.
War Memorial Stadium (AR)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - at
#25 Missouri Tigers
1-0 · SOS #30
Loss 14-54
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Missouri by 44.7
Total 51.5
DraftKings
MIZ -55.5
Total 62.5
Final Missouri by 40. Arkansas-Pine Bluff beat the spread. 68 points — over the 62.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Missouri -55.5 (open Missouri -54.5) · O/U 62.5 (open 60.5) · model vs market -10.8 pts (Missouri view)
SEC Network Memorial StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Alcorn State Braves
2-1 · SOS #164
Loss 51-53
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Alcorn State by 4.6
Total 51.8
DraftKings
ALCN -8.5
Total 49.5
Final Alcorn State by 2. Arkansas-Pine Bluff beat the spread. 104 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Alcorn State -8.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML +261 / -346 · Alcorn State 74% no-vig · model vs market -3.9 pts, -12 pct pts (Alcorn State view)
Simmons Bank Liberty StadiumPregame calls · how each did
- vs
Central State (OH) Marauders
1-3 · SOS #135
Win 41-35
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 10
Total 62.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 6. 76 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Simmons Bank FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Southern Jaguars
2-4 · SOS #90
Win 41-10
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Southern by 2.1
Total 63.3
DraftKings
SOU -3
Total 55.5
Final Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 31. Arkansas-Pine Bluff beat the spread. 51 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern -3 (open Southern -4.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 56.5) · ML +115 / -143 · Southern 56% no-vig · model vs market -0.9 pts, -0 pct pts (Southern view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 8 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBTR)A.W. Mumford StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - vs
Alabama State Hornets
4-3 · SOS #162
Loss 15-21
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Alabama State by 6.1
Total 57.1
DraftKings
ALST -3.5
Total 54.5
Final Alabama State by 6. Alabama State beat the spread. 36 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Alabama State -3.5 (open Alabama State -4.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 59.5) · ML -149 / +120 · Arkansas-Pine Bluff 43% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -9 pct pts (Arkansas-Pine Bluff view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 14 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPBF)Simmons Bank FieldPregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game: Record 30 hits, 30 misses (50% hit rate) over 60 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game: hit · Under · high total, close game → went under 26 of 38 since week 3 · base 54% - at
Florida A&M Rattlers
2-6 · SOS #21
Win 31-28
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 0.8
Total 56.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 3. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 77°F, Wind 11 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTLH)Bragg Memorial StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit - vs
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
5-3 · SOS #125
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 30-28 · 57%
Our number
Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 2
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 76°F, Wind 5 mph ESE, 41% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTSimmons Bank FieldExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
Grambling Tigers
4-3 · SOS #60
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 32-33 · 48%
Our number
Grambling by 1
Total 65
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Eddie G. Robinson Memorial StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesHigh Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - vs
Prairie View A&M Panthers
4-5 · SOS #67
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 28-27 · 51%
Our number
Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Simmons Bank FieldExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games - at
Texas Southern Tigers
2-5 · SOS #138
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 35-26 · 72%
Our number
Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 9
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Shell Energy StadiumExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-25.0
Adj. offense
16.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
41.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 32.6 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 30.9 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.71 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.63 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 216.1 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 189.6 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 138.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 320.7 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.29 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.57 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.05 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.18 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.0% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 46.6% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.2% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.0% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.6% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.6% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.35 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.21 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 60.4 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.06 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.03 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.29 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 41.5% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 42.1% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.3% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 33.1% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 36.8% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 37.8% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 41.8% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 66.3% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 64.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.