Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arkansas-Pine Bluff 28.8, Florida A&M 28 at Bragg Memorial Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.8 points and 56.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 3-3, scoring 32.8 and allowing 31.3 points per game (+1.5 per game). Florida A&M is 2-5, scoring 18.9 and allowing 34 points per game (-15.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 23 and Florida A&M by 22 about 80% of the time.
Florida A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Arkansas-Pine Bluff is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 31, Florida A&M 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.2 points and the total by 2.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas-Pine Bluff 28.8, Florida A&M 28.0 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff 52%right winner | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 31, Florida A&M 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Florida A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.0 | 24.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.5 | 33.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.22 | 5.56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.02 | 6.51 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.6 | 151.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 194.9 | 202.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 250.4 | 194.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 249.0 | 240.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 0.30 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 2.20 |
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 36.1% | 38.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.1% | 47.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7% | 14.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.3% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.9% | 11.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5% | 16.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.84 | 3.24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.29 | 4.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9 | 63.6 |
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.27 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8% | 40.8% |
| Passing success rate | 33.8% | 38.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4% | 21.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.4% | 27.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.3% | 38.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 38.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.3% | 53.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.4% | 48.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.9% | 73.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas-Pine Bluff schedule · Florida A&M schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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