Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arkansas-Pine Bluff 36.4, Central State (OH) 26.4 at Simmons Bank Field in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10 points and 62.7 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Central State (OH) is 0-1, scoring 26 and allowing 48 points per game (-22 per game). Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 1-2, scoring 33.3 and allowing 40.7 points per game (-7.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central State (OH) by 13 and Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 33 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arkansas-Pine Bluff by about 7.9.
Result: Central State (OH) 35, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4 points and the total by 13.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Central State (OH) 26.4, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 36.4 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff 74%right winner | 4.0 | 13.3 |
| New formula | Central State (OH) 25.7, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 33.9 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff 69%right winner | 2.2 | 16.3 |
Final: Central State (OH) 35, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Central State (OH) vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Central State (OH) | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.0 | 19.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 | 35.5 |
| Yards per play | 2.90 | 5.22 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.94 | 7.02 |
| Rushing yards per game | 57.0 | 164.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 94.0 | 194.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.0 | 250.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 153.0 | 249.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 3.00 | 0.73 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.18 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 6.00 | 1.45 |
| Stat | Central State (OH) | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | -0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 35.2% | 36.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.2% | 48.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 9.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 15.3% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 11.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.9% | 10.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.33 | 3.84 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 4.29 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 52.0 | 68.9 |
| Stat | Central State (OH) | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.16 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 23.8% | 41.8% |
| Passing success rate | 17.2% | 33.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.5% | 20.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.2% | 24.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7% | 36.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.6% | 40.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5% | 50.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | — | 64.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 65.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central State (OH) schedule · Arkansas-Pine Bluff schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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