Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alcorn State 28.2, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 23.6 on a neutral field at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Alcorn State wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 51.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 1-1, scoring 24.5 and allowing 34.5 points per game (-10 per game). Alcorn State is 1-1, scoring 29.5 and allowing 28 points per game (+1.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 18 and Alcorn State by 27 about 80% of the time.
Result: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51, Alcorn State 53. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.6 points and the total by 52.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arkansas-Pine Bluff / Alcorn State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alcorn State -8.5 | 49.5 | +261 / -346 |
| DraftKings | Alcorn State -8.5 | 49.5 | +261 / -346 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Alcorn State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alcorn State -4.5 | 51.8 | 62% |
| Market consensus | Alcorn State -8.5 | 49.5 | 74% |
| Blended projection | Alcorn State -8 | 50.5 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Alcorn State win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Alcorn State -4.6 · market Alcorn State -8.5 · difference -3.9 pts (Alcorn State view)
- Total
- model 51.8 · market 49.5 · difference +2.3
Model margin is 3.9 pts more toward Arkansas-Pine Bluff than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas-Pine Bluff 23.6, Alcorn State 28.2 | Alcorn State 62%right winner | 2.6 | 52.2 |
| New formula | Arkansas-Pine Bluff 26.3, Alcorn State 29.9 | Alcorn State 59%right winner | 1.7 | 47.8 |
Final: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51, Alcorn State 53. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Alcorn State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.0 | 24.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.5 | 23.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.22 | 5.63 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.02 | 5.26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.6 | 183.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 194.9 | 171.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 250.4 | 139.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 249.0 | 202.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.73 | 0.91 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 1.27 |
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 36.1% | 41.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.1% | 40.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7% | 11.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.3% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.9% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.84 | 3.37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.29 | 3.91 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9 | 63.1 |
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8% | 48.9% |
| Passing success rate | 33.8% | 40.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4% | 20.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.4% | 28.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.3% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 38.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.3% | 35.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.4% | 50.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.9% | 61.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas-Pine Bluff schedule · Alcorn State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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