Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama State 31.6, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 25.5 at Simmons Bank Field in Week 7. That is a lean: Alabama State wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 57.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Alabama State is 3-3, scoring 26.5 and allowing 18.3 points per game (+8.2 per game). Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 3-2, scoring 36.4 and allowing 33.4 points per game (+3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama State by 29 and Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 16 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alabama State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Alabama State 21, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 15. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.1 points and the total by 21.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alabama State / Arkansas-Pine Bluff) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama State -4.5 → Alabama State -3.5 | 59.5 → 54.5 | -149 / +120 |
| DraftKings | Alabama State -4.5 → Alabama State -3.5 | 59.5 → 54.5 | -149 / +120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arkansas-Pine Bluff win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama State -6 | 57.1 | 34% |
| Market consensus | Alabama State -3.5 | 54.5 | 43% |
| Blended projection | Alabama State -4 | 55.1 | 39% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff win probability
- model 34% · market (no-vig) 43% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama State -6.1 · market Alabama State -3.5 · difference -2.6 pts (Arkansas-Pine Bluff view)
- Total
- model 57.1 · market 54.5 · difference +2.6
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Alabama State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alabama State 31.6, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 25.5 | Alabama State 66%right winner | 0.1 | 21.1 |
| New formula | Alabama State 31.2, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 25.3 | Alabama State 65%right winner | 0.1 | 20.5 |
Final: Alabama State 21, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 15. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alabama State vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Alabama State | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.4 | 19.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.4 | 35.5 |
| Yards per play | 8.09 | 5.22 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63 | 7.02 |
| Rushing yards per game | 227.9 | 164.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.5 | 194.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 250.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.6 | 249.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.27 | 0.73 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.82 | 1.18 |
| Sacks per game | 1.64 | 1.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.09 | 1.45 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27 | -0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 50.2% | 36.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.5% | 48.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 18.5% | 9.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 15.3% |
| Havoc rate | 10.5% | 11.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 8.6% | 10.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18 | 3.84 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.28 | 4.29 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.4 | 68.9 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.37 | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.16 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.6% | 41.8% |
| Passing success rate | 56.7% | 33.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.4% | 20.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.1% | 24.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.9% | 36.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.7% | 50.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.7% | 64.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.9% | 65.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama State schedule · Arkansas-Pine Bluff schedule · all Week 7 projections
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