Matchup analysis
Our model projects Arkansas-Pine Bluff 35, Texas Southern 26 at Shell Energy Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9 points and 60.4 combined points.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 4-3 against the 73rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.6 and allowing 30.9 points per game (+1.7 per game). Texas Southern is 2-5 against the 79th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.9 and allowing 43 points per game (-18.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 32 and Texas Southern by 14 about 80% of the time.
Texas Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Arkansas-Pine Bluff is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Texas Southern: stat comparison
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.6 | 24.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.9 | 43.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.71 | 5.50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.63 | 6.32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 216.1 | 183.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.6 | 163.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 138.0 | 198.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 320.7 | 216.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57 | 3.14 |
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.14 |
| Success rate | 41.0% | 38.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.6% | 46.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2% | 13.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 14.9% |
| Havoc rate | 14.6% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.6% | 17.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.35 | 3.53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21 | 5.09 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 23 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 18 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.4 | 63.0 |
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.5% | 42.1% |
| Passing success rate | 42.1% | 34.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.3% | 18.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.1% | 28.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.8% | 32.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8% | 37.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.8% | 45.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.3% | 53.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.0% | 72.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas-Pine Bluff schedule · Texas Southern schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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