Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southern 32.7, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 30.6 at A.W. Mumford Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Southern wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 63.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 2-2, scoring 35.3 and allowing 39.3 points per game (-4 per game). Southern is 2-3, scoring 24.8 and allowing 37.6 points per game (-12.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 20 and Southern by 25 about 80% of the time.
Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Arkansas-Pine Bluff would be dead even.
Result: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 41, Southern 10. Arkansas-Pine Bluff won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 33.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arkansas-Pine Bluff / Southern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southern -4.5 → Southern -3 | 56.5 → 55.5 | +115 / -143 |
| DraftKings | Southern -4.5 → Southern -3 | 56.5 → 55.5 | +115 / -143 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southern -2 | 63.2 | 55% |
| Market consensus | Southern -3 | 55.5 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Southern -3 | 56.3 | 58% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Southern -2.1 · market Southern -3 · difference -0.9 pts (Southern view)
- Total
- model 63.2 · market 55.5 · difference +7.7
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward Arkansas-Pine Bluff than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas-Pine Bluff 30.6, Southern 32.7 | Southern 55%wrong winner | 33.1 | 12.2 |
| New formula | Arkansas-Pine Bluff 31.0, Southern 31.4 | Southern 51%wrong winner | 31.4 | 11.4 |
Final: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 41, Southern 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Southern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.0 | 18.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.5 | 36.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.22 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.02 | 5.97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.6 | 185.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 194.9 | 179.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 250.4 | 191.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 249.0 | 225.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.73 | 1.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 1.18 |
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 36.1% | 37.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.1% | 43.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7% | 11.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.3% | 12.5% |
| Havoc rate | 11.9% | 12.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5% | 12.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.84 | 3.22 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.29 | 4.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9 | 65.5 |
| Stat | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8% | 43.5% |
| Passing success rate | 33.8% | 35.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4% | 19.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.4% | 25.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.3% | 35.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 42.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.3% | 43.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.4% | 50.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.9% | 78.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas-Pine Bluff schedule · Southern schedule · all Week 5 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.