Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Morehouse College 29.2, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 25.5 on a neutral field at War Memorial Stadium (AR) in Week 1. That is a lean: Morehouse College wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 54.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Morehouse College has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Morehouse College by 26 and Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 19 about 80% of the time.
Result: Morehouse College 15, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 35. Arkansas-Pine Bluff won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 23.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Morehouse College 29.2, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 25.5 | Morehouse College 60%wrong winner | 23.7 | 4.6 |
| New formula | Morehouse College 28.8, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 27.6 | Morehouse College 53%wrong winner | 21.2 | 6.4 |
Final: Morehouse College 15, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Morehouse College vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Morehouse College | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 10.0 | 19.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.0 | 35.5 |
| Yards per play | 3.33 | 5.22 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.09 | 7.02 |
| Rushing yards per game | 74.0 | 164.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 129.0 | 194.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 193.0 | 250.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 233.0 | 249.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 3.00 | 0.73 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Sacks per game | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 1.45 |
| Stat | Morehouse College | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.26 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 37.1% | 36.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 50.5% | 48.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3% | 9.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.3% | 15.3% |
| Havoc rate | 9.5% | 11.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9% | 10.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.84 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.29 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.0 | 68.9 |
| Stat | Morehouse College | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.36 | +0.16 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 29.6% | 41.8% |
| Passing success rate | 22.6% | 33.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 26.3% | 20.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.6% | 24.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6% | 36.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.0% | 50.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 64.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 65.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Morehouse College schedule · Arkansas-Pine Bluff schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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