Matchup analysis
Our model projects Arkansas-Pine Bluff 28, Prairie View A&M 27 at Simmons Bank Field in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.3 points and 55.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Prairie View A&M is 4-5 against the 68th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.3 and allowing 29.4 points per game (-4.1 per game). Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 4-3 against the 73rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.6 and allowing 30.9 points per game (+1.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Prairie View A&M by 22 and Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 23 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Prairie View A&M would be favoured by 1.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Prairie View A&M vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: stat comparison
| Stat | Prairie View A&M | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.3 | 32.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.4 | 30.9 |
| Yards per play | 5.48 | 6.71 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.10 | 6.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.1 | 216.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 186.7 | 189.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.2 | 138.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 249.9 | 320.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.78 | 1.29 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.44 | 1.57 |
| Stat | Prairie View A&M | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 38.2% | 41.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 46.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4% | 13.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 14.9% | 14.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.2% | 14.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.73 | 4.35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.58 | 4.21 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.0 | 60.4 |
| Stat | Prairie View A&M | Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.29 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7% | 41.5% |
| Passing success rate | 35.9% | 42.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0% | 19.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.0% | 33.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.6% | 36.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1% | 37.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.6% | 41.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.5% | 66.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.8% | 64.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Prairie View A&M schedule · Arkansas-Pine Bluff schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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