Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Missouri 27, Kansas 25.2 at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Missouri wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 52.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Missouri (No. 23) is 1-0, scoring 54 and allowing 14 points per game (+40 per game). Kansas is 1-0, scoring 51 and allowing 6 points per game (+45 per game).
Missouri's strong offense (30th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (51st); that mismatch is where most of Missouri's projected points come from. Kansas's strong offense (40th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.3 points against an average defense) meets Missouri's strong defense (28th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kansas puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri by 24 and Kansas by 21 about 80% of the time.
Kansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Missouri is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Missouri 38, Kansas 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.2 points and the total by 6.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Missouri / Kansas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Missouri -6.75 → Missouri -4 | 51.25 → 51.75 | -201 / +167.5 |
| DraftKings | Missouri -7 → Missouri -4 | 52.5 → 51.5 | -192 / +160 |
| Bovada | Missouri -6.5 → Missouri -4 | 50 → 52 | -210 / +175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kansas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Missouri -2 | 52.2 | 45% |
| Market consensus | Missouri -4 | 51.8 | 36% |
| Blended projection | Missouri -3.5 | 52.4 | 40% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kansas win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 36% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model Missouri -1.8 · market Missouri -4 · difference +2.2 pts (Kansas view)
- Total
- model 52.2 · market 51.75 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward Kansas than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Missouri 27.0, Kansas 25.2 | Missouri 55%right winner | 15.2 | 6.8 |
| New formula | Missouri 26.8, Kansas 29.2 | Kansas 56%wrong winner | 19.4 | 3.1 |
Final: Missouri 38, Kansas 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Missouri vs Kansas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Missouri | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.2#44 | 28.1#63 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.9#17 | 26.8#80 |
| Yards per play | 6.18#40 | 6.50#26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.93#10 | 5.98#91 |
| Rushing yards per game | 244.4#7 | 191.9#34 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.2#105 | 227.2#66 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 124.9#15 | 186.0#101 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 173.2#13 | 205.8#47 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#61 | 1.08#77 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85#89 | 0.58#123 |
| Sacks per game | 2.69#14 | 2.00#68 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08#88 | 1.50#37 |
| Stat | Missouri | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#37 | +0.12#25 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#20 | +0.09#115 |
| Success rate | 45.0%#43 | 48.4%#13 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.8%#8 | 41.6%#68 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#44 | 15.1%#15 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.9%#6 | 14.2%#120 |
| Havoc rate | 14.4%#20 | 12.2%#76 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5%#23 | 11.6%#55 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.11#48 | 4.13#45 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.58#40 | 4.36#117 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#88 | own 30#72 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#65 | own 27#10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.2#26 | 64.5#93 |
| Stat | Missouri | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#12 | +0.14#15 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#88 | +0.09#48 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#27 | -0.02#54 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#30 | +0.20#125 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.1%#19 | 51.6%#6 |
| Passing success rate | 41.2%#64 | 45.1%#31 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.3%#37 | 13.7%#11 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9%#63 | 33.2%#37 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5%#32 | 32.4%#104 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.9%#26 | 41.5%#62 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.0%#38 | 41.9%#84 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.0%#39 | 59.6%#75 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.1%#48 | 64.9%#102 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Missouri schedule · Kansas schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.