Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Missouri 26.4, Texas A&M 25.5 at Memorial Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Missouri wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 51.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Texas A&M is 3-2, scoring 31.8 and allowing 18.6 points per game (+13.2 per game). Missouri (No. 14) is 4-1, scoring 37.6 and allowing 20 points per game (+17.6 per game).
Texas A&M's strong offense (22nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.4 points against an average defense) meets Missouri's strong defense (16th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texas A&M puts up. Missouri's strong offense (27th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.4 points against an average defense) meets Texas A&M's strong defense (15th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Missouri puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas A&M by 22 and Missouri by 23 about 80% of the time.
Missouri gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Texas A&M would be favoured by 1.2. The game is on ABC/Disney+.
Result: Texas A&M 6, Missouri 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.1 points and the total by 18.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas A&M / Missouri) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Missouri -3.25 → Missouri -4.5 | 49.25 → 50.5 | +170 / -202.5 |
| Bovada | Missouri -5 → Missouri -4.5 | 48 → 50.5 | +170 / -200 |
| DraftKings | Missouri -1.5 → Missouri -4.5 | 50.5 | +170 / -205 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Missouri win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Missouri -1 | 51.9 | 52% |
| Market consensus | Missouri -4.5 | 50.5 | 64% |
| Blended projection | Missouri -4 | 51.3 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Missouri win probability
- model 52% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Missouri -0.9 · market Missouri -4.5 · difference -3.6 pts (Missouri view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 50.5 · difference +1.4
Model margin is 3.6 pts more toward Texas A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas A&M 25.5, Missouri 26.4 | Missouri 52%right winner | 20.1 | 18.9 |
| New formula | Texas A&M 25.5, Missouri 26.0 | Missouri 51%right winner | 20.5 | 18.5 |
Final: Texas A&M 6, Missouri 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas A&M vs Missouri: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Texas A&M | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.8#64 | 37.6#25 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.6#38 | 20.0#48 |
| Yards per play | 5.09#127 | 6.70#39 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.41#118 | 5.23#50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 182.6#58 | 173.2#65 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.0#110 | 272.8#33 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 126.0#38 | 120.4#30 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.2#84 | 223.6#91 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20#93 | 0.20#4 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#50 | 1.00#47 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#123 | 3.00#14 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.60#62 | 1.00#20 |
| Stat | Texas A&M | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#96 | +0.18#33 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#60 | -0.07#21 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#69 | 43.8%#62 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8%#72 | 33.7%#8 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#106 | 13.8%#48 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.9%#135 | 11.7%#67 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#102 | 20.9%#2 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.4%#81 | 15.2%#111 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.58#42 | 4.00#78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.60#52 | 3.82#70 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#21 | own 36#6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#59 | own 24#7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.0#23 | 66.6#62 |
| Stat | Texas A&M | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#63 | -0.08#128 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#108 | +0.43#5 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#33 | -0.13#10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#90 | -0.03#46 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.3%#47 | 37.5%#116 |
| Passing success rate | 39.2%#96 | 50.0%#23 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8%#54 | 18.2%#88 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.3%#28 | 33.0%#59 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.1%#45 | 25.2%#30 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.2%#63 | 43.9%#60 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 27.8%#8 | 34.2%#38 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.6%#39 | 52.0%#113 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.8%#52 | 54.5%#58 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas A&M schedule · Missouri schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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