Matchup analysis
Our model projects Missouri 29, Arkansas 19 at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Missouri wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.4 points and 48.2 combined points.
Missouri (No. 23) is 5-2 against the 30th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.1 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+11.5 per game). Arkansas is 3-4 against the 8th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21 and allowing 26.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
Missouri's strong offense (39th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (68th); that mismatch is where most of Missouri's projected points come from. Expect Arkansas to find it hard going: Missouri's strong defense (16th) outranks Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (79th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri by 33 and Arkansas by 12 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Missouri is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on SEC Network.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Missouri / Arkansas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Missouri -10 | 49.25 | -380 / +300 |
| FanDuel | Missouri -9.5 | 48.5 | -375 / +290 |
| DraftKings | Missouri -10 | 49.5 | -380 / +300 |
| BetRivers | Missouri -10 | 49 | -435 / +310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Missouri -9.5 | 48.5 | -425 / +300 |
| BetMGM | Missouri -10 | 49.5 | -375 / +300 |
| theScore Bet | Missouri -9.5 | 49.5 | -400 / +300 |
| Pinnacle | Missouri -10 | 49 | -374 / +295 |
| Bovada | Missouri -10 | 49.5 | -380 / +290 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arkansas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Missouri -10.5 | 48.2 | 25% |
| Market consensus | Missouri -10 | 49.3 | 24% |
| Blended projection | Missouri -10 | 50.0 | 25% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arkansas win probability
- model 25% · market (no-vig) 24% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Missouri -10.4 · market Missouri -10 · difference -0.4 pts (Arkansas view)
- Total
- model 48.2 · market 49.25 · difference -1.0
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Arkansas 23%.
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Missouri vs Arkansas: stat comparison
| Stat | Missouri | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.1#54 | 21.0#115 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.6#31 | 26.7#96 |
| Yards per play | 6.35#46 | 5.08#130 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.27#44 | 6.21#109 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.1#73 | 125.6#124 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.9#30 | 221.6#71 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 130.0#36 | 156.1#71 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.6#94 | 207.7#73 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#15 | 1.00#76 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#47 | 1.00#46 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#22 | 1.43#109 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#14 | 2.29#99 |
| Stat | Missouri | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#55 | -0.03#125 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#22 | +0.10#101 |
| Success rate | 40.9%#98 | 43.2%#66 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.1%#16 | 44.0%#103 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#41 | 9.7%#131 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#78 | 13.8%#111 |
| Havoc rate | 17.6%#11 | 13.5%#79 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4%#100 | 13.6%#78 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72#99 | 3.68#103 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.92#81 | 5.21#137 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#13 | own 27#125 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#8 | own 30#95 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.7#52 | 68.3#42 |
| Stat | Missouri | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#127 | -0.04#121 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#18 | -0.02#112 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#17 | +0.21#134 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#38 | -0.02#41 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.9%#131 | 41.1%#97 |
| Passing success rate | 45.7%#40 | 45.0%#44 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8%#109 | 16.1%#52 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9%#90 | 27.5%#111 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.6%#21 | 21.2%#3 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.4%#62 | 42.4%#61 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.7%#58 | 44.6%#120 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.3%#123 | 57.7%#94 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#32 | 85.2%#138 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Missouri schedule · Arkansas schedule · all Week 9 projections
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