Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisiana 28.4, Troy 24.5 at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Louisiana wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 52.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Troy is 3-2, scoring 28 and allowing 24 points per game (+4 per game). Louisiana is 4-2, scoring 29.5 and allowing 21.5 points per game (+8 per game).
Troy's below-average offense (91st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.1 points against an average defense) meets Louisiana's below-average defense (85th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Troy puts up. Louisiana's below-average offense (85th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense) meets Troy's below-average defense (88th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Louisiana puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Troy by 19 and Louisiana by 26 about 80% of the time.
Louisiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisiana by about 1.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Troy 6, Louisiana 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.1 points and the total by 13.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Troy / Louisiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisiana -4 → Louisiana -3 | 48.5 → 49.25 | +147 / -174 |
| DraftKings | Louisiana -3.5 → Louisiana -3 | 47.5 → 49.5 | +124 / -148 |
| Bovada | Louisiana -4.5 → Louisiana -3 | 49.5 → 49 | +170 / -200 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana -4 | 52.8 | 60% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana -3 | 49.3 | 61% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana -3 | 50.3 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisiana win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 61% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Louisiana -3.9 · market Louisiana -3 · difference +0.9 pts (Louisiana view)
- Total
- model 52.8 · market 49.25 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward Louisiana than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Troy 24.5, Louisiana 28.4 | Louisiana 60%right winner | 23.1 | 13.8 |
| New formula | Troy 25.2, Louisiana 27.7 | Louisiana 56%right winner | 24.6 | 13.9 |
Final: Troy 6, Louisiana 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Troy vs Louisiana: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Troy | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0#77 | 29.5#69 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0#75 | 21.5#52 |
| Yards per play | 6.28#58 | 6.02#77 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.83#89 | 5.16#43 |
| Rushing yards per game | 237.8#14 | 197.7#41 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.6#72 | 187.7#104 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 128.8#38 | 110.3#20 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 223.2#93 | 197.8#64 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#86 | 0.83#69 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.60#12 | 1.33#27 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#71 | 1.33#115 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#90 | 1.50#56 |
| Stat | Troy | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#88 | +0.09#71 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#46 | +0.01#54 |
| Success rate | 42.8%#71 | 41.3%#91 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9%#56 | 40.8%#71 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8%#68 | 12.5%#81 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6%#107 | 10.9%#48 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#47 | 14.2%#68 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4%#119 | 11.2%#31 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.68#102 | 4.19#61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40#38 | 4.15#95 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#126 | own 33#23 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#107 | own 27#37 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.2#11 | 64.0#88 |
| Stat | Troy | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#71 | +0.13#47 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#101 | +0.05#93 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#29 | -0.09#17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#69 | +0.12#97 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.5%#71 | 42.1%#90 |
| Passing success rate | 39.8%#94 | 40.9%#87 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2%#92 | 18.8%#99 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.2%#84 | 32.6%#63 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.2%#23 | 32.4%#100 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.4%#92 | 37.9%#96 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 29.5%#8 | 43.2%#110 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.9%#62 | 64.6%#64 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.4%#30 | 66.7%#106 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Troy schedule · Louisiana schedule · all Week 7 projections
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