Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Alabama 32, Troy 27 at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: South Alabama wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 59.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Troy is 3-4 against the 113th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.9 and allowing 24.9 points per game (-2 per game). South Alabama is 4-3 against the 103rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.1 and allowing 32.4 points per game (+2.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Troy's below-average offense (111th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.9 points against an average defense) against South Alabama's struggling defense (126th). South Alabama's middle-of-the-pack offense (60th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Troy's below-average defense (98th); that mismatch is where most of South Alabama's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Troy by 17 and South Alabama by 28 about 80% of the time.
South Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Alabama by about 3.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Troy vs South Alabama: stat comparison
| Stat | Troy | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.9#105 | 35.1#33 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.9#76 | 32.4#124 |
| Yards per play | 5.75#92 | 6.01#66 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.23#40 | 7.23#137 |
| Rushing yards per game | 213.3#24 | 224.4#15 |
| Net passing yards per game | 183.4#113 | 202.4#95 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.6#50 | 173.6#95 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.9#33 | 256.1#124 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#63 | 0.29#11 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#36 | 1.00#56 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#98 | 1.71#97 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#93 | 1.00#19 |
| Stat | Troy | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#91 | +0.12#52 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#64 | +0.23#136 |
| Success rate | 41.4%#93 | 42.2%#77 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#80 | 46.5%#128 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#95 | 12.3%#75 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#81 | 14.1%#119 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6%#77 | 14.8%#53 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.1%#111 | 11.6%#34 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.48#113 | 4.10#71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.79#65 | 4.40#113 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#129 | own 32#30 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#115 | own 31#114 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#38 | 71.0#15 |
| Stat | Troy | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#40 | +0.08#71 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05#120 | +0.20#34 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#44 | +0.22#135 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#80 | +0.23#122 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8%#74 | 44.4%#71 |
| Passing success rate | 35.1%#124 | 40.6%#82 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.9%#32 | 15.5%#40 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1%#102 | 32.1%#59 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.0%#36 | 36.5%#124 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.0%#120 | 40.8%#72 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#23 | 43.1%#113 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.1%#58 | 62.0%#70 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.7%#68 | 73.6%#129 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Troy schedule · South Alabama schedule · all Week 11 projections
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