Matchup analysis
Our model projects Arkansas State 28, Troy 25 at Centennial Bank Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Arkansas State wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 53 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Troy is 3-4 against the 130th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.9 and allowing 24.9 points per game (-2 per game). Arkansas State is 4-4 against the 96th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.8 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+1.5 per game).
Troy's below-average offense (111th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.9 points against an average defense) meets Arkansas State's below-average defense (112th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Troy puts up. Arkansas State's below-average offense (102nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.8 points against an average defense) meets Troy's below-average defense (98th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Arkansas State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Troy by 20 and Arkansas State by 25 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arkansas State by about 0.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Troy vs Arkansas State: stat comparison
| Stat | Troy | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.9#105 | 28.8#68 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.9#76 | 27.3#98 |
| Yards per play | 5.75#92 | 6.48#36 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.23#40 | 6.59#128 |
| Rushing yards per game | 213.3#24 | 147.6#101 |
| Net passing yards per game | 183.4#113 | 254.1#41 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.6#50 | 199.8#122 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.9#33 | 202.5#59 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#63 | 1.00#95 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#36 | 1.13#45 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#98 | 0.63#137 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#93 | 2.00#86 |
| Stat | Troy | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#91 | +0.10#58 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#64 | +0.13#117 |
| Success rate | 41.4%#93 | 47.0%#31 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#80 | 44.3%#109 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#95 | 13.5%#54 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#81 | 15.0%#129 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6%#77 | 10.4%#135 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.1%#111 | 13.0%#62 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.48#113 | 4.13#67 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.79#65 | 4.17#103 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#129 | own 31#56 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#115 | own 28#60 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#38 | 62.0#107 |
| Stat | Troy | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#40 | +0.03#98 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05#120 | +0.18#41 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#44 | +0.10#105 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#80 | +0.17#111 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8%#74 | 46.5%#47 |
| Passing success rate | 35.1%#124 | 47.8%#27 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.9%#32 | 16.4%#59 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1%#102 | 30.7%#76 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.0%#36 | 30.0%#72 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.0%#120 | 42.1%#65 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#23 | 44.8%#122 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.1%#58 | 69.3%#36 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.7%#68 | 69.2%#119 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Troy schedule · Arkansas State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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