2026 schedule

Arkansas State Red Wolves

4-4SOS #102

2026 season so far

Arkansas State is 4-4 against the 102nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.8 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+1.5 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Arkansas State ranks 107th of 139 FBS teams overall — 102nd on offense and 112th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: vs UL Monroe in Week 10. We project Arkansas State 33, UL Monroe 21 — Arkansas State wins 78% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
Memphis Tigers
2-0 · SOS #104
Loss 24-42
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Memphis by 9.9
Total 53.3
DraftKings
MEM -10.5
Total 52.5
Final Memphis by 18. Memphis beat the spread. 66 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Memphis -10.5 · O/U 52.25 (open 55.5) · ML +290 / -367.5 · Memphis 75% no-vig · model vs market -0.6 pts, -1 pct pts (Memphis view)
ESPN+ Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
vs
West Georgia Wolves
0-3 · SOS #29
Win 52-7
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Arkansas State by 30.3
Total 47.1
DraftKings
ARST -31.5
Total 56.5
Final Arkansas State by 45. Arkansas State beat the spread. 59 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arkansas State -31.5 · O/U 56.5 · ML +3000 / -10000 · Arkansas State 97% no-vig · model vs market -1.2 pts, +1 pct pts (Arkansas State view)
ESPN+ Centennial Bank Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
TCU Horned Frogs
2-1 · SOS #55
Loss 7-31
Week 3
Our number· pregame
TCU by 7.7
Total 54.1
DraftKings
TCU -18.5
Total 56.5
Final TCU by 24. TCU beat the spread. 38 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: TCU -19 (open TCU -20.25) · O/U 56.25 (open 57.5) · ML +775 / -1375 · TCU 89% no-vig · model vs market -11.3 pts, -20 pct pts (TCU view)
ESPNU Amon G. Carter Stadium
vs
Kennesaw State Owls
1-3 · SOS #96
Win 17-14
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Arkansas State by 8.1
Total 51.3
DraftKings
ARST -6.5
Total 53.5
Final Arkansas State by 3. Kennesaw State beat the spread. 31 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arkansas State -6.5 (open Arkansas State -4.75) · O/U 53.25 (open 53.5) · ML +177.5 / -211.5 · Arkansas State 65% no-vig · model vs market +1.6 pts, +5 pct pts (Arkansas State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 5 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KJBR)
ESPN+ Centennial Bank Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Z. Booker WR · Low catches 5.5 (avg 6.7) · 68% · did not playC. Cobb WR · Low catches 3.6 (avg 4.3) · 67% · 4 ✓
at
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
4-1 · SOS #110
Loss 20-23
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Louisiana by 7.7
Total 51.7
DraftKings
UL -4.5
Total 49.5
Final Louisiana by 3. Arkansas State beat the spread. 43 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisiana -5.25 · O/U 49 (open 48.25) · ML +197.5 / -240 · Louisiana 67% no-vig · model vs market +2.4 pts, +2 pct pts (Louisiana view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLFT)
ESPN+ Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
S. Baggett RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 53) · 68% · 51 ✓C. Cobb WR · Low catches 3.5 (avg 4.3) · 66% · 8 ✗L. Winfield QB · High pass yds 183 (avg 165) · 54% · 184 ✓
vs
South Alabama Jaguars
4-2 · SOS #103
Loss 49-56
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Arkansas State by 2.4
Total 59.8
DraftKings
ARST -3
Total 60.5
Final South Alabama by 7. South Alabama beat the spread. 105 points — over the 60.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arkansas State -3 (open Arkansas State -1.25) · O/U 60.25 (open 58.25) · ML +15.5 / -138.5 · Arkansas State 55% no-vig · model vs market -0.6 pts, +1 pct pts (Arkansas State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 8 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KJBR)
ESPN2 Centennial Bank Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High-scoring pick'em dogStudy · Moderate Underdog wins: Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: Record 87 hits, 52 misses (63% hit rate) over 139 graded gamesSpread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: hit (n=139) · Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
B. Jenkins WR · Low rec yds 45 (avg 64) · 74% · 36 ✓B. Jenkins WR · Low catches 3.2 (avg 4) · 66% · 1 ✓T. Owens QB · High pass yds 230 (avg 209) · 56% · 418 ✓
at
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
1-5 · SOS #93
Win 23-13
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Arkansas State by 3.1
Total 59.5
DraftKings
ARST -5.5
Total 61.5
Final Arkansas State by 10. Arkansas State beat the spread. 36 points — under the 61.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arkansas State -6 (open Arkansas State -7) · O/U 61.75 (open 58.5) · ML -246.5 / +202.5 · Southern Miss 32% no-vig · model vs market +2.9 pts, +10 pct pts (Southern Miss view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind 7 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHBG)
ESPN+ M. M. Roberts Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 17 of 21 since week 3 · base 53%
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: missed (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded gamesConference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: missed (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
S. Robinson RB · TD threat 68% · 1 ✓L. Lyddy QB · High pass yds 197 (avg 165) · 64% · 208 ✓T. Owens QB · High pass yds 271 (avg 244) · 57% · 170 ✗
vs
Georgia State Panthers
4-3 · SOS #126
Win 38-32
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Georgia State by 1.1
Total 58.9
DraftKings
GAST -2.5
Total 58.5
Final Arkansas State by 6. Arkansas State beat the spread. 70 points — over the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia State -2.5 · O/U 58.5 · ML -135 / +114 · Arkansas State 45% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +2 pct pts (Arkansas State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 5 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KJBR)
ESPN+ Centennial Bank Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: missed
High-scoring pick'em dogStudy · Moderate Underdog wins: Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: Record 87 hits, 52 misses (63% hit rate) over 139 graded gamesSpread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: hit (n=139) · Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: missed (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded gamesConference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: hit (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
R. Dorsey WR · TD threat 66% · 1 ✓T. Owens QB · High pass yds 243 (avg 233) · 53% · 309 ✓
vs
UL Monroe Warhawks
1-6 · SOS #97
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 33-21 · 78%
Our number
Arkansas State by 12
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Centennial Bank Stadium
A. Armenta QB · High pass yds 198 (avg 187) · 56%T. Owens QB · High pass yds 259 (avg 243) · 54%
at
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
2-5 · SOS #115
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 28-27 · 51%
Our number
Arkansas State by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Brooks Stadium (SC)
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
T. Owens QB · High pass yds 254 (avg 243) · 53%
at
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
5-2 · SOS #101
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 20-32 · 22%
Our number
Louisiana Tech by 12
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Joe Aillet Stadium
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Owens QB · Low rush yds 26 (avg 26) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Clay RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 37) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · S. Baggett RB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 44) · 78%
vs
Troy Trojans
3-4 · SOS #113
Sat, Nov 28, 8:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 28-25 · 57%
Our number
Arkansas State by 3
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Centennial Bank Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games

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Arkansas State Red Wolves stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-9.3

106th in FBS

Adj. offense

22.8

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

32.0

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	28.8	68 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	27.3	98 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.48	36 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.59	128 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	147.6	101 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	254.1	41 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	199.8	122 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	202.5	59 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.00	95 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.13	45 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	0.63	137 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	2.00	86 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.10	58 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.13	117 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	47.0%	31 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	44.3%	109 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.5%	54 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	15.0%	129 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	10.4%	135 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.0%	62 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.13	67 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.17	103 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 31	56 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 28	60 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	62.0	107 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.03	98 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.18	41 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.10	105 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.17	111 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	46.5%	47 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	47.8%	27 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	16.4%	59 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	30.7%	76 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	30.0%	72 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	42.1%	65 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	44.8%	122 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	69.3%	36 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	69.2%	119 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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