Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisiana 29.7, Arkansas State 22 at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Louisiana wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.7 points and 51.6 combined points.
Arkansas State is 2-2, scoring 25 and allowing 23.5 points per game (+1.5 per game). Louisiana is 3-1, scoring 30.8 and allowing 19.3 points per game (+11.5 per game).
Expect Arkansas State to find it hard going: Louisiana's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th) outranks Arkansas State's below-average offense (104th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense). Louisiana's middle-of-the-pack offense (81st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Arkansas State's below-average defense (100th); that mismatch is where most of Louisiana's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas State by 15 and Louisiana by 30 about 80% of the time.
Louisiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisiana by about 5.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Arkansas State 20, Louisiana 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.7 points and the total by 8.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arkansas State / Louisiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisiana -5.25 | 48.25 → 49 | +197.5 / -240 |
| DraftKings | Louisiana -4 → Louisiana -4.5 | 49.5 | +170 / -205 |
| Bovada | Louisiana -6.5 → Louisiana -6 | 47 → 48.5 | +225 / -275 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana -7.5 | 51.6 | 69% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana -5.5 | 49.0 | 67% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana -5.5 | 50.0 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisiana win probability
- model 69% · market (no-vig) 67% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Louisiana -7.7 · market Louisiana -5.25 · difference +2.5 pts (Louisiana view)
- Total
- model 51.6 · market 49 · difference +2.6
Model margin is 2.5 pts more toward Louisiana than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas State 22.0, Louisiana 29.7 | Louisiana 69%right winner | 4.7 | 8.6 |
| New formula | Arkansas State 22.0, Louisiana 29.9 | Louisiana 70%right winner | 4.9 | 8.9 |
Final: Arkansas State 20, Louisiana 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas State vs Louisiana: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Arkansas State | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.0#95 | 30.8#71 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.5#76 | 19.3#43 |
| Yards per play | 6.54#54 | 5.50#111 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.79#126 | 4.66#24 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.5#78 | 195.3#44 |
| Net passing yards per game | 209.0#90 | 170.5#112 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 186.5#114 | 106.0#20 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.8#104 | 160.8#27 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#113 | 0.75#67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#47 | 1.75#14 |
| Sacks per game | 0.75#135 | 1.75#83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#84 | 1.75#79 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#85 | +0.04#97 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#109 | -0.04#35 |
| Success rate | 46.7%#36 | 39.4%#113 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1%#115 | 39.3%#61 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#89 | 10.4%#121 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.6%#121 | 10.5%#50 |
| Havoc rate | 10.3%#130 | 14.9%#60 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.8%#46 | 11.8%#45 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.59#110 | 4.28#59 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.58#121 | 4.63#123 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#64 | own 36#12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#29 | own 25#15 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.3#130 | 66.5#62 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#72 | +0.11#59 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#84 | -0.04#112 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#75 | -0.12#15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.25#120 | +0.03#71 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.1%#48 | 38.6%#112 |
| Passing success rate | 46.3%#46 | 40.0%#90 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.2%#25 | 18.0%#88 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.5%#89 | 28.2%#98 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.4%#115 | 26.3%#48 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.5%#50 | 33.3%#120 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.0%#134 | 40.0%#86 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 77.8%#13 | 71.1%#41 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.0%#126 | 71.4%#115 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas State schedule · Louisiana schedule · all Week 5 projections
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