Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Memphis 31.6, Arkansas State 21.7 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Memphis wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.9 points and 53.3 combined points.
Arkansas State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Memphis is 1-0, scoring 27 and allowing 21 points per game (+6 per game).
Memphis's middle-of-the-pack defense (55th) should limit Arkansas State's below-average offense (102nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Memphis's middle-of-the-pack offense (62nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27 points against an average defense) against Arkansas State's below-average defense (112th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas State by 13 and Memphis by 32 about 80% of the time.
Memphis gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Memphis by about 7.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Arkansas State 24, Memphis 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.1 points and the total by 12.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arkansas State / Memphis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Memphis -10.5 | 55.5 → 52.25 | +290 / -367.5 |
| Bovada | Memphis -10.5 | 55.5 → 52 | +270 / -340 |
| DraftKings | Memphis -10.5 | 52.5 | +310 / -395 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Memphis win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Memphis -10 | 53.3 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Memphis -10.5 | 52.3 | 75% |
| Blended projection | Memphis -10.5 | 52.9 | 76% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Memphis win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 75% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Memphis -9.9 · market Memphis -10.5 · difference -0.6 pts (Memphis view)
- Total
- model 53.3 · market 52.25 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 0.6 pts more toward Arkansas State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas State 21.7, Memphis 31.6 | Memphis 74%right winner | 8.1 | 12.7 |
| New formula | Arkansas State 17.9, Memphis 36.4 | Memphis 86%right winner | 0.5 | 11.6 |
Final: Arkansas State 24, Memphis 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas State vs Memphis: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Arkansas State | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.2#87 | 32.5#25 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4#85 | 23.2#52 |
| Yards per play | 5.26#116 | 6.38#31 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.93#84 | 5.77#66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 136.3#114 | 208.8#21 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.2#38 | 224.6#71 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.9#94 | 151.1#50 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 225.2#84 | 232.4#96 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#79 | 0.85#38 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85#92 | 1.23#48 |
| Sacks per game | 2.92#6 | 1.62#100 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.23#99 | 2.62#116 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#95 | +0.16#14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00#64 | 0.00#62 |
| Success rate | 41.6%#84 | 45.5%#34 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7%#83 | 40.1%#49 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5%#122 | 13.5%#39 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#62 | 12.5%#70 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#14 | 13.9%#30 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.8%#131 | 11.6%#56 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.43#121 | 4.36#29 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.91#73 | 4.01#87 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#42 | own 30#71 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#31 | own 27#13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 74.4#5 | 67.9#49 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#95 | +0.26#2 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#87 | +0.06#58 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#71 | -0.07#25 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#58 | +0.06#88 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.1%#102 | 49.5%#11 |
| Passing success rate | 43.3%#46 | 40.8%#71 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.0%#101 | 18.9%#85 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.8%#84 | 32.6%#40 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.8%#75 | 28.7%#57 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.9%#71 | 42.3%#53 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.7%#82 | 42.2%#90 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.9%#100 | 73.4%#13 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.2%#71 | 63.2%#90 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas State schedule · Memphis schedule · all Week 1 projections
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