Matchup analysis
Our model projects Arkansas State 28, Coastal Carolina 27 at Brooks Stadium (SC) in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Arkansas State wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 54.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Arkansas State is 4-4 against the 96th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.8 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+1.5 per game). Coastal Carolina is 2-5 against the 108th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.1 and allowing 25.9 points per game (+0.2 per game).
Arkansas State's below-average offense (102nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Coastal Carolina's below-average defense (117th); that mismatch is where most of Arkansas State's projected points come from. Coastal Carolina's below-average offense (113th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense) meets Arkansas State's below-average defense (112th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Coastal Carolina puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas State by 23 and Coastal Carolina by 22 about 80% of the time.
Coastal Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Arkansas State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina: stat comparison
| Stat | Arkansas State | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.8#68 | 26.1#89 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3#98 | 25.9#90 |
| Yards per play | 6.48#36 | 5.96#75 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.59#128 | 6.46#121 |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.6#101 | 167.4#69 |
| Net passing yards per game | 254.1#41 | 214.9#83 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.8#122 | 216.9#130 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.5#59 | 206.6#71 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#95 | 1.14#112 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#45 | 1.00#62 |
| Sacks per game | 0.63#137 | 2.14#64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#86 | 2.71#121 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10#58 | +0.01#108 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#117 | +0.12#111 |
| Success rate | 47.0%#31 | 39.4%#116 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3%#109 | 45.0%#121 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#54 | 13.0%#64 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.0%#129 | 13.9%#116 |
| Havoc rate | 10.4%#135 | 13.7%#73 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#62 | 15.2%#114 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.13#67 | 3.79#95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.17#103 | 3.47#39 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#56 | own 29#91 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#60 | own 29#77 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.0#107 | 64.1#87 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#98 | +0.04#90 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#41 | -0.01#111 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#105 | +0.12#115 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#111 | +0.13#97 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.5%#47 | 42.9%#84 |
| Passing success rate | 47.8%#27 | 37.1%#114 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.4%#59 | 16.3%#56 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.7%#76 | 31.0%#73 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0%#72 | 30.0%#71 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1%#65 | 37.2%#98 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.8%#122 | 45.6%#126 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.3%#36 | 62.5%#66 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.2%#119 | 56.3%#51 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas State schedule · Coastal Carolina schedule · all Week 11 projections
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