Matchup analysis
Our model projects Louisiana Tech 32, Arkansas State 20 at Joe Aillet Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Louisiana Tech wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12 points and 52.8 combined points.
Arkansas State is 4-4 against the 96th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.8 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+1.5 per game). Louisiana Tech is 5-2 against the 101st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 21 points per game (+11.3 per game).
Expect Arkansas State to find it hard going: Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (57th) outranks Arkansas State's below-average offense (102nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.8 points against an average defense). Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (76th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Arkansas State's below-average defense (112th); that mismatch is where most of Louisiana Tech's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas State by 11 and Louisiana Tech by 35 about 80% of the time.
Louisiana Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisiana Tech by about 9.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech: stat comparison
| Stat | Arkansas State | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.8#68 | 32.3#47 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3#98 | 21.0#46 |
| Yards per play | 6.48#36 | 5.89#80 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.59#128 | 5.39#55 |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.6#101 | 159.6#84 |
| Net passing yards per game | 254.1#41 | 232.7#60 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.8#122 | 131.9#39 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.5#59 | 210.0#78 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#95 | 1.00#90 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#45 | 1.86#6 |
| Sacks per game | 0.63#137 | 2.57#30 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#86 | 2.29#103 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10#58 | +0.11#57 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#117 | -0.11#9 |
| Success rate | 47.0%#31 | 44.0%#59 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3%#109 | 35.8%#20 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#54 | 13.6%#50 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.0%#129 | 13.0%#96 |
| Havoc rate | 10.4%#135 | 18.0%#7 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#62 | 15.0%#109 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.13#67 | 3.74#97 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.17#103 | 3.43#35 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#56 | own 35#4 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#60 | own 29#75 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.0#107 | 66.6#66 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#98 | +0.03#97 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#41 | +0.18#38 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#105 | -0.08#16 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#111 | -0.14#14 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.5%#47 | 40.4%#102 |
| Passing success rate | 47.8%#27 | 46.6%#33 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.4%#59 | 18.4%#91 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.7%#76 | 36.7%#23 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0%#72 | 26.9%#34 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1%#65 | 46.9%#28 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.8%#122 | 39.8%#83 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.3%#36 | 70.3%#33 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.2%#119 | 38.6%#5 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas State schedule · Louisiana Tech schedule · all Week 12 projections
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