Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arkansas State 29.7, Kennesaw State 21.6 at Centennial Bank Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Arkansas State wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 51.3 combined points.
Kennesaw State is 1-2, scoring 24.3 and allowing 24.3 points per game (+0 per game). Arkansas State is 1-2, scoring 27.7 and allowing 26.7 points per game (+1 per game).
Arkansas State's below-average defense (101st) should limit Kennesaw State's struggling offense (124th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20 points against an average defense). Arkansas State's below-average offense (97th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense) meets Kennesaw State's below-average defense (105th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Arkansas State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kennesaw State by 14 and Arkansas State by 31 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arkansas State by about 6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Kennesaw State 14, Arkansas State 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.1 points and the total by 20.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kennesaw State / Arkansas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arkansas State -4.75 → Arkansas State -6.5 | 53.5 → 53.25 | +177.5 / -211.5 |
| DraftKings | Arkansas State -5.5 → Arkansas State -6.5 | 53.5 | +195 / -238 |
| Bovada | Arkansas State -4 → Arkansas State -6.5 | 53.5 → 53 | +160 / -185 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arkansas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arkansas State -8 | 51.3 | 70% |
| Market consensus | Arkansas State -6.5 | 53.3 | 65% |
| Blended projection | Arkansas State -7 | 53.7 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arkansas State win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Arkansas State -8.1 · market Arkansas State -6.5 · difference +1.6 pts (Arkansas State view)
- Total
- model 51.3 · market 53.25 · difference -2.0
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward Arkansas State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kennesaw State 21.6, Arkansas State 29.7 | Arkansas State 70%right winner | 5.1 | 20.3 |
| New formula | Kennesaw State 21.8, Arkansas State 30.1 | Arkansas State 71%right winner | 5.4 | 20.9 |
Final: Kennesaw State 14, Arkansas State 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kennesaw State vs Arkansas State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3#104 | 27.7#90 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3#87 | 26.7#103 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#89 | 6.71#49 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.86#96 | 7.35#130 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.0#79 | 177.0#69 |
| Net passing yards per game | 226.0#73 | 201.0#92 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 182.3#111 | 183.0#113 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 177.0#50 | 270.0#124 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#64 | 1.67#129 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33#122 | 1.67#24 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#117 | 1.00#126 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#65 | 2.00#101 |
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#41 | +0.04#96 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#81 | +0.12#111 |
| Success rate | 45.3%#46 | 45.9%#40 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.6%#116 | 42.8%#97 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#84 | 12.7%#76 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6%#108 | 15.8%#129 |
| Havoc rate | 8.2%#135 | 12.2%#107 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.2%#20 | 12.0%#50 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.36#58 | 3.89#96 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.71#121 | 4.34#103 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#105 | own 30#74 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#48 | own 27#52 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#69 | 56.3#128 |
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.27#5 | +0.14#37 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#82 | -0.07#112 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#100 | -0.03#51 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#73 | +0.32#131 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.8%#54 | 49.3%#35 |
| Passing success rate | 44.0%#70 | 42.9%#79 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.0%#118 | 13.4%#27 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.9%#93 | 30.6%#82 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.9%#112 | 32.3%#98 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.7%#77 | 46.9%#44 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.6%#21 | 51.4%#129 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.0%#90 | 69.1%#49 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 87.5%#132 | 79.9%#124 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kennesaw State schedule · Arkansas State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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