Matchup analysis
Our model projects Arkansas State 33, UL Monroe 21 at Centennial Bank Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Arkansas State wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 53.9 combined points.
UL Monroe is 1-6 against the 97th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-17.2 per game). Arkansas State is 4-4 against the 102nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.8 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+1.5 per game).
Expect UL Monroe to find it hard going: Arkansas State's below-average defense (112th) outranks UL Monroe's struggling offense (133rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.8 points against an average defense). Arkansas State's below-average offense (102nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UL Monroe's struggling defense (130th); that mismatch is where most of Arkansas State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UL Monroe by 11 and Arkansas State by 34 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arkansas State by about 9.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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UL Monroe vs Arkansas State: stat comparison
| Stat | UL Monroe | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.1#123 | 28.8#68 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.3#135 | 27.3#98 |
| Yards per play | 5.10#129 | 6.48#36 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.48#123 | 6.59#128 |
| Rushing yards per game | 130.6#118 | 147.6#101 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.4#100 | 254.1#41 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 226.7#133 | 199.8#122 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.7#95 | 202.5#59 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#96 | 1.00#95 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#130 | 1.13#45 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#88 | 0.63#137 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#79 | 2.00#86 |
| Stat | UL Monroe | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#105 | +0.10#58 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#105 | +0.13#117 |
| Success rate | 40.9%#99 | 47.0%#31 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7%#118 | 44.3%#109 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8%#94 | 13.5%#54 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#94 | 15.0%#129 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#109 | 10.4%#135 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.2%#128 | 13.0%#62 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.69#102 | 4.13#67 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.28#107 | 4.17#103 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#126 | own 31#56 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#106 | own 28#60 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#89 | 62.0#107 |
| Stat | UL Monroe | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#76 | +0.03#98 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#115 | +0.18#41 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#74 | +0.10#105 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20#117 | +0.17#111 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.6%#77 | 46.5%#47 |
| Passing success rate | 39.0%#100 | 47.8%#27 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2%#103 | 16.4%#59 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#109 | 30.7%#76 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.2%#119 | 30.0%#72 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.2%#136 | 42.1%#65 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.5%#125 | 44.8%#122 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.7%#76 | 69.3%#36 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.9%#62 | 69.2%#119 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UL Monroe schedule · Arkansas State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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