Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arkansas State 31.1, South Alabama 28.7 at Centennial Bank Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Arkansas State wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 59.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
South Alabama is 3-2, scoring 35.4 and allowing 31.6 points per game (+3.8 per game). Arkansas State is 2-3, scoring 24 and allowing 23.4 points per game (+0.6 per game).
South Alabama's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Arkansas State's below-average defense (97th); that mismatch is where most of South Alabama's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Arkansas State's below-average offense (99th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) against South Alabama's struggling defense (127th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Alabama by 20 and Arkansas State by 25 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arkansas State by about 0.3. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: South Alabama 56, Arkansas State 49. South Alabama won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Alabama / Arkansas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arkansas State -1.25 → Arkansas State -3 | 58.25 → 60.25 | +15.5 / -138.5 |
| DraftKings | Arkansas State -1.5 → Arkansas State -3 | 58.5 → 60.5 | +136 / -162 |
| Bovada | Arkansas State -1 → Arkansas State -3 | 58 → 60 | -105 / -115 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arkansas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arkansas State -2.5 | 59.8 | 56% |
| Market consensus | Arkansas State -3 | 60.3 | 55% |
| Blended projection | Arkansas State -3 | 60.2 | 58% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arkansas State win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 55% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Arkansas State -2.4 · market Arkansas State -3 · difference -0.6 pts (Arkansas State view)
- Total
- model 59.8 · market 60.25 · difference -0.5
Model margin is 0.6 pts more toward South Alabama than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Alabama 28.7, Arkansas State 31.1 | Arkansas State 56%wrong winner | 9.4 | 45.2 |
| New formula | South Alabama 28.7, Arkansas State 31.2 | Arkansas State 56%wrong winner | 9.4 | 45.1 |
Final: South Alabama 56, Arkansas State 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Alabama vs Arkansas State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | South Alabama | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.4#42 | 24.0#101 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6#120 | 23.4#72 |
| Yards per play | 6.30#61 | 6.35#57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.54#137 | 6.81#125 |
| Rushing yards per game | 217.4#30 | 149.8#99 |
| Net passing yards per game | 240.2#59 | 208.4#88 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 190.6#113 | 196.8#121 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 233.0#103 | 225.6#94 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.20#11 | 1.00#89 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#84 | 1.00#71 |
| Sacks per game | 1.60#91 | 0.60#136 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.20#41 | 1.40#60 |
| Stat | South Alabama | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#65 | +0.07#77 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.28#138 | +0.16#120 |
| Success rate | 41.6%#92 | 46.0%#41 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5%#118 | 47.5%#129 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#79 | 12.5%#80 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7%#122 | 15.6%#129 |
| Havoc rate | 14.5%#58 | 8.8%#137 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3%#33 | 12.1%#48 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.09#73 | 3.67#105 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.58#120 | 4.58#121 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#36 | own 31#57 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#102 | own 26#19 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.6#13 | 56.4#131 |
| Stat | South Alabama | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#100 | +0.07#81 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.26#30 | +0.07#75 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.28#137 | +0.07#91 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29#129 | +0.28#126 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.9%#87 | 46.8%#56 |
| Passing success rate | 45.0%#53 | 45.3%#49 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.9%#29 | 14.0%#34 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6%#64 | 32.5%#65 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.3%#122 | 36.7%#124 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.7%#42 | 45.5%#48 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.7%#60 | 51.7%#134 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.1%#103 | 66.7%#57 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 74.3%#124 | 76.9%#127 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Alabama schedule · Arkansas State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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