Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arkansas State 31.3, Southern Miss 28.2 at M. M. Roberts Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Arkansas State wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.1 points and 59.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Arkansas State is 2-4, scoring 28.2 and allowing 28.8 points per game (-0.6 per game). Southern Miss is 1-4, scoring 26.4 and allowing 34.6 points per game (-8.2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Arkansas State's below-average offense (97th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.3 points against an average defense) against Southern Miss's struggling defense (129th). Southern Miss's below-average offense (100th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Arkansas State's below-average defense (116th); that mismatch is where most of Southern Miss's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas State by 26 and Southern Miss by 19 about 80% of the time.
Southern Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Arkansas State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Arkansas State 23, Southern Miss 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.9 points and the total by 23.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arkansas State / Southern Miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arkansas State -7 → Arkansas State -6 | 58.5 → 61.75 | -246.5 / +202.5 |
| DraftKings | Arkansas State -7 → Arkansas State -5.5 | 56.5 → 61.5 | -218 / +180 |
| Bovada | Arkansas State -7 → Arkansas State -6.5 | 60.5 → 62 | -275 / +225 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern Miss win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arkansas State -3 | 59.4 | 42% |
| Market consensus | Arkansas State -6 | 61.8 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Arkansas State -5.5 | 61.5 | 35% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern Miss win probability
- model 42% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Arkansas State -3.1 · market Arkansas State -6 · difference +2.9 pts (Southern Miss view)
- Total
- model 59.4 · market 61.75 · difference -2.4
Model margin is 2.9 pts more toward Southern Miss than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas State 31.3, Southern Miss 28.2 | Arkansas State 58%right winner | 6.9 | 23.4 |
| New formula | Arkansas State 30.6, Southern Miss 29.3 | Arkansas State 54%right winner | 8.6 | 23.9 |
Final: Arkansas State 23, Southern Miss 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas State vs Southern Miss: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Arkansas State | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.2#75 | 26.4#87 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8#112 | 34.6#129 |
| Yards per play | 6.73#30 | 6.29#57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.74#126 | 6.38#121 |
| Rushing yards per game | 142.5#107 | 156.0#87 |
| Net passing yards per game | 252.3#46 | 281.8#20 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 213.7#129 | 281.2#138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.7#69 | 189.8#48 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33#117 | 1.60#132 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#78 | 1.00#59 |
| Sacks per game | 0.50#136 | 2.00#70 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#57 | 2.00#89 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#49 | +0.08#76 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#121 | +0.13#114 |
| Success rate | 49.8%#16 | 43.6%#64 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.5%#129 | 45.1%#115 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#48 | 13.6%#53 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.0%#127 | 14.6%#123 |
| Havoc rate | 9.0%#138 | 9.7%#135 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4%#34 | 12.2%#49 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.23#60 | 4.39#49 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.71#124 | 4.09#90 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#63 | own 25#134 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#60 | own 29#65 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.7#127 | 69.6#28 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#62 | +0.12#51 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#46 | +0.05#89 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#105 | +0.18#127 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.30#126 | +0.06#80 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.0%#31 | 46.3%#55 |
| Passing success rate | 50.5%#22 | 41.5%#81 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.3%#30 | 10.5%#4 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.3%#27 | 26.9%#110 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.5%#118 | 33.9%#109 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.8%#16 | 32.3%#125 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.6%#129 | 45.2%#119 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#15 | 61.0%#84 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 83.3%#135 | 58.8%#71 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas State schedule · Southern Miss schedule · all Week 7 projections
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