Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia State 30, Arkansas State 28.9 at Centennial Bank Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Georgia State wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 58.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Georgia State is 4-2, scoring 36.5 and allowing 24 points per game (+12.5 per game). Arkansas State is 3-4, scoring 27.4 and allowing 26.6 points per game (+0.8 per game).
Georgia State's middle-of-the-pack offense (72nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Arkansas State's below-average defense (112th); that mismatch is where most of Georgia State's projected points come from. Arkansas State's below-average offense (102nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.8 points against an average defense) meets Georgia State's below-average defense (114th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Arkansas State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia State by 24 and Arkansas State by 21 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Georgia State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Georgia State 32, Arkansas State 38. Arkansas State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia State / Arkansas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia State -2.5 | 58.5 | -135 / +114 |
| Opening line | Georgia State -1.5 | 55.5 | -120 / +100 |
| DraftKings | Georgia State -2.5 | 58.5 | -135 / +114 |
| FanDuel | Georgia State -2.5 | 58.5 | -130 / +108 |
| BetRivers | Georgia State -2.5 | 59.5 | -141 / +115 |
| BetMGM | Georgia State -2.5 | 58.5 | -145 / +120 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arkansas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia State -1 | 58.8 | 47% |
| Market consensus | Georgia State -2.5 | 58.5 | 45% |
| Blended projection | Georgia State -2.5 | 58.7 | 44% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arkansas State win probability
- model 47% · market (no-vig) 45% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia State -1.1 · market Georgia State -2.5 · difference +1.4 pts (Arkansas State view)
- Total
- model 58.8 · market 58.5 · difference +0.3
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Arkansas State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgia State 30.0, Arkansas State 28.9 | Georgia State 53%wrong winner | 7.1 | 11.2 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Georgia State 32, Arkansas State 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Georgia State vs Arkansas State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Georgia State | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.8#119 | 25.2#87 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.8#134 | 27.4#85 |
| Yards per play | 5.71#81 | 5.26#116 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.61#129 | 5.93#84 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.3#110 | 136.3#114 |
| Net passing yards per game | 262.3#28 | 255.2#38 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.2#130 | 181.9#94 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 243.5#111 | 225.2#84 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#84 | 1.08#79 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.42#135 | 0.85#92 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#119 | 2.92#6 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#41 | 2.23#99 |
| Stat | Georgia State | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#64 | -0.01#95 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#126 | +0.00#64 |
| Success rate | 41.1%#92 | 41.6%#84 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.2%#119 | 42.7%#83 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#103 | 10.5%#122 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7%#127 | 12.1%#62 |
| Havoc rate | 10.4%#122 | 14.8%#14 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.7%#31 | 15.8%#131 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.58#112 | 3.43#121 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.50#125 | 3.91#73 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#131 | own 31#42 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#110 | own 28#31 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.3#25 | 74.4#5 |
| Stat | Georgia State | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#82 | -0.02#95 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#61 | -0.01#87 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#119 | +0.01#71 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#119 | -0.01#58 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.5%#84 | 40.1%#102 |
| Passing success rate | 39.7%#89 | 43.3%#46 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8%#84 | 20.0%#101 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6%#42 | 28.8%#84 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.2%#134 | 29.8%#75 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.2%#68 | 40.9%#71 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.2%#127 | 41.7%#82 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.2%#69 | 56.9%#100 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.5%#117 | 60.2%#71 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia State schedule · Arkansas State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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