Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected TCU 30.9, Arkansas State 23.2 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: TCU wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.7 points and 54 combined points.
Arkansas State is 1-1, scoring 38 and allowing 24.5 points per game (+13.5 per game). TCU is 1-1, scoring 36.5 and allowing 11 points per game (+25.5 per game).
TCU's strong defense (33rd) should limit Arkansas State's middle-of-the-pack offense (82nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: TCU's strong offense (34th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31 points against an average defense) against Arkansas State's below-average defense (113th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas State by 15 and TCU by 30 about 80% of the time.
TCU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour TCU by about 5.6. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Arkansas State 7, TCU 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.3 points and the total by 16.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arkansas State / TCU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | TCU -20.25 → TCU -19 | 57.5 → 56.25 | +775 / -1375 |
| DraftKings | TCU -20.5 → TCU -18.5 | 57.5 → 56.5 | +800 / -1350 |
| Bovada | TCU -20 → TCU -19.5 | 57.5 → 56 | +750 / -1400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | TCU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | TCU -7.5 | 54.0 | 69% |
| Market consensus | TCU -19 | 56.3 | 89% |
| Blended projection | TCU -17.5 | 56.4 | 88% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- TCU win probability
- model 69% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference -20 pts
- Margin
- model TCU -7.7 · market TCU -19 · difference -11.3 pts (TCU view)
- Total
- model 54.0 · market 56.25 · difference -2.2
Model margin is 11.3 pts more toward Arkansas State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas State 23.2, TCU 30.9 | TCU 69%right winner | 16.3 | 16.0 |
| New formula | Arkansas State 18.1, TCU 39.0 | TCU 91%right winner | 3.1 | 19.1 |
Final: Arkansas State 7, TCU 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas State vs TCU: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Arkansas State | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.0#44 | 36.5#46 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.5#89 | 11.0#18 |
| Yards per play | 7.59#20 | 6.99#37 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.36#131 | 5.52#86 |
| Rushing yards per game | 197.0#54 | 209.0#43 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.5#60 | 269.5#39 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 207.5#122 | 69.0#6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.5#92 | 229.0#95 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.50#136 | 0.50#36 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#19 | 1.50#26 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#125 | 2.50#35 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#102 | 2.00#84 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#86 | +0.10#61 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#108 | -0.01#55 |
| Success rate | 45.8%#41 | 46.2%#34 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7%#91 | 37.5%#40 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9%#72 | 10.9%#104 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7%#113 | 9.4%#27 |
| Havoc rate | 13.2%#86 | 18.8%#18 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.4%#70 | 8.4%#9 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.10#78 | 4.54#40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07#89 | 3.33#36 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#52 | own 37#15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#56 | own 26#40 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.5#114 | 68.5#44 |
| Stat | Arkansas State | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#70 | +0.15#34 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#76 | +0.06#77 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#101 | -0.22#9 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#110 | +0.14#107 |
| Rushing success rate | 56.0%#18 | 50.9%#37 |
| Passing success rate | 49.0%#44 | 41.9%#77 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6%#63 | 11.6%#17 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.3%#56 | 18.9%#129 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.5%#110 | 37.5%#123 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.6%#17 | 37.5%#91 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 54.2%#133 | 20.0%#7 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.1%#54 | 63.6%#72 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.1%#108 | 33.3%#13 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas State schedule · TCU schedule · all Week 3 projections
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