Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arkansas State 38.7, West Georgia 8.4 at Centennial Bank Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Arkansas State wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 30.3 points and 47.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
West Georgia is 0-2, scoring 5 and allowing 35.5 points per game (-30.5 per game). Arkansas State is 0-1, scoring 24 and allowing 42 points per game (-18 per game).
West Georgia plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Arkansas State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas State by 8 and Arkansas State by 53 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arkansas State by about 28.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: West Georgia 7, Arkansas State 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.7 points and the total by 11.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (West Georgia / Arkansas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arkansas State -31.5 | 56.5 | +3000 / -10000 |
| Bovada | Arkansas State -31.5 | 56.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Arkansas State -31.5 | 56.5 | +3000 / -10000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arkansas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arkansas State -30.5 | 47.1 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Arkansas State -31.5 | 56.5 | 97% |
| Blended projection | Arkansas State -31.5 | 56.3 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arkansas State win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 97% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Arkansas State -30.3 · market Arkansas State -31.5 · difference -1.2 pts (Arkansas State view)
- Total
- model 47.1 · market 56.5 · difference -9.4
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward West Georgia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | West Georgia 8.4, Arkansas State 38.7 | Arkansas State 98%right winner | 14.7 | 11.9 |
| New formula | West Georgia 13.6, Arkansas State 39.4 | Arkansas State 94%right winner | 19.2 | 6.1 |
Final: West Georgia 7, Arkansas State 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
West Georgia vs Arkansas State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | West Georgia | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.5 | 25.2#87 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.2 | 27.4#85 |
| Yards per play | 5.58 | 5.26#116 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46 | 5.93#84 |
| Rushing yards per game | 228.1 | 136.3#114 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.3 | 255.2#38 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.9 | 181.9#94 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.5 | 225.2#84 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36 | 1.08#79 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 0.85#92 |
| Sacks per game | 2.82 | 2.92#6 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.55 | 2.23#99 |
| Stat | West Georgia | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.01#95 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10 | +0.00#64 |
| Success rate | 40.2% | 41.6%#84 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.7% | 42.7%#83 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4% | 10.5%#122 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 12.1%#62 |
| Havoc rate | 14.6% | 14.8%#14 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 15.8%#131 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.43#121 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.51 | 3.91#73 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 31#42 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 28#31 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.8 | 74.4#5 |
| Stat | West Georgia | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.02#95 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.01#87 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.15 | +0.01#71 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.01#58 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.5% | 40.1%#102 |
| Passing success rate | 38.6% | 43.3%#46 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 20.0%#101 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.2% | 28.8%#84 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4% | 29.8%#75 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.4% | 40.9%#71 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.1% | 41.7%#82 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 56.9%#100 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 39.0% | 60.2%#71 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: West Georgia schedule · Arkansas State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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