Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Troy 34.2, UL Monroe 18.7 at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Troy wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.5 points and 52.9 combined points.
UL Monroe is 0-6, scoring 20 and allowing 41.2 points per game (-21.2 per game). Troy is 3-3, scoring 24.3 and allowing 25.5 points per game (-1.2 per game).
Expect UL Monroe to find it hard going: Troy's below-average defense (98th) outranks UL Monroe's struggling offense (133rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.8 points against an average defense). Troy's below-average offense (111th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UL Monroe's struggling defense (130th); that mismatch is where most of Troy's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UL Monroe by 7 and Troy by 38 about 80% of the time.
Troy gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Troy by about 13.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UL Monroe 21, Troy 14. UL Monroe won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 22.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UL Monroe / Troy) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Troy -13.5 | 50.5 | +460 / -650 |
| Opening line | Troy -17.5 | 50.5 | +700 / -1100 |
| DraftKings | Troy -13.5 | 50.5 | +455 / -625 |
| FanDuel | Troy -12.5 | 50.5 | +460 / -650 |
| BetRivers | Troy -12.5 | 50.5 | +370 / -530 |
| BetMGM | Troy -13.5 | 50.5 | +475 / -625 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Troy win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Troy -15.5 | 52.9 | 85% |
| Market consensus | Troy -13.5 | 50.5 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Troy -14 | 51.4 | 83% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Troy win probability
- model 85% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Troy -15.5 · market Troy -13.5 · difference +2.0 pts (Troy view)
- Total
- model 52.9 · market 50.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward Troy than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UL Monroe 18.7, Troy 34.2 | Troy 85%wrong winner | 22.5 | 17.9 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: UL Monroe 21, Troy 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UL Monroe vs Troy: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UL Monroe | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.6#130 | 23.5#96 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.9#119 | 23.9#59 |
| Yards per play | 5.63#87 | 4.86#131 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.65#55 | 5.93#85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 173.7#65 | 125.6#121 |
| Net passing yards per game | 167.3#117 | 195.8#98 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.9#81 | 192.0#114 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 211.8#57 | 200.4#42 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#120 | 1.00#67 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#132 | 1.14#61 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08#60 | 2.43#29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#56 | 4.21#136 |
| Stat | UL Monroe | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#97 | -0.04#113 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#85 | -0.07#28 |
| Success rate | 37.9%#118 | 39.6%#108 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1%#63 | 39.5%#44 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#41 | 11.1%#108 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#61 | 13.3%#103 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#72 | 13.4%#48 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1%#134 | 16.0%#133 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44#120 | 4.13#46 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83#66 | 3.43#23 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#127 | own 32#23 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#134 | own 30#83 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5#125 | 66.1#70 |
| Stat | UL Monroe | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.00#89 | -0.07#117 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#94 | -0.01#89 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#37 | -0.03#45 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11#104 | -0.13#22 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.3%#129 | 38.4%#114 |
| Passing success rate | 36.2%#115 | 37.8%#105 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.1%#130 | 23.4%#132 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2%#107 | 28.4%#87 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9%#98 | 27.9%#43 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.4%#123 | 39.5%#87 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.4%#108 | 40.6%#70 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.2%#88 | 66.5%#38 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.6%#31 | 48.7%#13 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UL Monroe schedule · Troy schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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