Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Troy 29.8, Southern Miss 20 at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Troy wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.8 points and 49.8 combined points.
Southern Miss is 1-3, scoring 24.5 and allowing 29.5 points per game (-5 per game). Troy is 2-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 21.5 points per game (-0.2 per game).
Expect Southern Miss to find it hard going: Troy's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th) outranks Southern Miss's below-average offense (109th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21 points against an average defense). Troy's below-average offense (103rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Southern Miss's struggling defense (118th); that mismatch is where most of Troy's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Miss by 13 and Troy by 32 about 80% of the time.
Troy gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Troy by about 7.7. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Southern Miss 34, Troy 55. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.2 points and the total by 39.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern Miss / Troy) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Troy -9.5 | 49 → 51.5 | +317.5 / -415 |
| Bovada | Troy -10.5 → Troy -9.5 | 49.5 → 51.5 | +315 / -420 |
| DraftKings | Troy -8.5 → Troy -9.5 | 48.5 → 51.5 | +320 / -410 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Troy win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Troy -10 | 49.8 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Troy -9.5 | 51.5 | 77% |
| Blended projection | Troy -9.5 | 52.1 | 74% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Troy win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Troy -9.8 · market Troy -9.5 · difference +0.3 pts (Troy view)
- Total
- model 49.8 · market 51.5 · difference -1.7
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern Miss 20.0, Troy 29.8 | Troy 74%right winner | 11.2 | 39.2 |
| New formula | Southern Miss 20.9, Troy 29.2 | Troy 71%right winner | 12.7 | 38.8 |
Final: Southern Miss 34, Troy 55. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern Miss vs Troy: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Southern Miss | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.5#97 | 21.3#112 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.5#115 | 21.5#55 |
| Yards per play | 5.95#82 | 5.71#99 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.85#94 | 5.29#55 |
| Rushing yards per game | 161.3#82 | 184.5#56 |
| Net passing yards per game | 258.0#42 | 223.5#72 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 238.8#135 | 127.3#40 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.8#46 | 184.8#48 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#111 | 1.25#113 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#28 | 1.25#29 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#68 | 2.00#69 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#90 | 2.00#92 |
| Stat | Southern Miss | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#109 | -0.06#124 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#82 | -0.12#9 |
| Success rate | 42.0%#85 | 37.8%#122 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2%#76 | 36.9%#28 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#83 | 11.2%#105 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2%#103 | 12.3%#88 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#126 | 16.9%#18 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3%#80 | 18.5%#136 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.68#33 | 2.85#132 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.55#48 | 3.42#37 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#134 | own 26#128 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#70 | own 32#116 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.5#27 | 71.5#16 |
| Stat | Southern Miss | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#75 | +0.02#97 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06#115 | -0.14#125 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#118 | -0.13#8 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#41 | -0.10#25 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.9%#68 | 39.9%#105 |
| Passing success rate | 39.8%#92 | 35.7%#124 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.4%#2 | 23.1%#133 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.9%#120 | 29.0%#90 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.9%#112 | 21.7%#8 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.0%#117 | 33.9%#118 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.4%#104 | 30.8%#19 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.4%#33 | 55.6%#101 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.9%#32 | 53.8%#54 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Miss schedule · Troy schedule · all Week 6 projections
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