Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Utah State 26.9, Troy 21.9 at Maverik Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Utah State wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 48.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Troy is 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 21.7 points per game (+3.3 per game). Utah State is 0-3, scoring 10.3 and allowing 26 points per game (-15.7 per game).
Expect Troy to find it hard going: Utah State's middle-of-the-pack defense (76th) outranks Troy's below-average offense (107th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.8 points against an average defense). Troy's middle-of-the-pack defense (82nd) should limit Utah State's below-average offense (103rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Troy by 18 and Utah State by 28 about 80% of the time.
Utah State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Utah State by about 2.9. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Troy 10, Utah State 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6 points and the total by 17.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Troy / Utah State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah State -2.5 → Utah State -3 | 50.75 → 47.5 | +117 / -139 |
| DraftKings | Utah State -2.5 → Utah State -3 | 52.5 → 47.5 | +124 / -148 |
| Bovada | Utah State -2.5 → Utah State -3 | 49 → 47.5 | +110 / -130 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah State -5 | 48.8 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Utah State -3 | 47.5 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Utah State -3.5 | 48.6 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah State win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Utah State -5 · market Utah State -3 · difference +2.0 pts (Utah State view)
- Total
- model 48.8 · market 47.5 · difference +1.3
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward Utah State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Troy 21.9, Utah State 26.9 | Utah State 63%right winner | 6.0 | 17.8 |
| New formula | Troy 22.0, Utah State 26.6 | Utah State 62%right winner | 6.4 | 17.5 |
Final: Troy 10, Utah State 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Troy vs Utah State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Troy | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.0#101 | 10.3#137 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.7#67 | 26.0#96 |
| Yards per play | 5.49#107 | 5.10#122 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.73#33 | 5.11#55 |
| Rushing yards per game | 184.7#57 | 124.3#126 |
| Net passing yards per game | 190.7#98 | 217.3#80 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 112.7#36 | 139.7#68 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 166.7#40 | 218.3#87 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#67 | 2.67#136 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#69 | 0.00#134 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33#43 | 1.67#80 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#119 | 3.33#133 |
| Stat | Troy | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04#118 | -0.17#137 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.16#8 | +0.03#68 |
| Success rate | 36.1%#127 | 34.8%#130 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.6%#22 | 40.5%#76 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#101 | 9.4%#127 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7%#54 | 8.9%#18 |
| Havoc rate | 18.1%#15 | 10.5%#124 |
| Havoc allowed | 20.0%#138 | 18.8%#133 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.62#111 | 1.71#138 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.64#54 | 3.74#61 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#118 | own 31#66 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#110 | own 32#109 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.3#46 | 67.0#58 |
| Stat | Troy | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#105 | -0.15#135 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#110 | -0.19#131 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.17#10 | -0.03#54 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#20 | +0.07#86 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.5%#113 | 36.3%#120 |
| Passing success rate | 34.4%#121 | 33.7%#126 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.1%#131 | 22.5%#123 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9%#87 | 35.9%#42 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 18.5%#7 | 30.0%#79 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.8%#119 | 44.2%#60 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.0%#27 | 44.7%#108 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.1%#103 | 37.5%#136 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#43 | 40.0%#16 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Troy schedule · Utah State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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