Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Troy 32.8, Sam Houston 19.5 at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Troy wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.2 points and 52.3 combined points.
Sam Houston has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Troy has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect Sam Houston to find it hard going: Troy's below-average defense (98th) outranks Sam Houston's struggling offense (137th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 13.7 points against an average defense). Troy's below-average offense (111th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.9 points against an average defense) meets Sam Houston's struggling defense (123rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Troy puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sam Houston by 9 and Troy by 36 about 80% of the time.
Troy gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Troy by about 11.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Sam Houston 21, Troy 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.2 points and the total by 7.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Sam Houston / Troy) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Troy -17.25 → Troy -16 | 50.5 → 52.75 | +650 / -1075 |
| Bovada | Troy -17 → Troy -16.5 | 50.5 → 53 | +725 / -1300 |
| DraftKings | Troy -17.5 → Troy -15.5 | 52.5 | +575 / -850 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Troy win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Troy -13 | 52.3 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Troy -16 | 52.8 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Troy -15.5 | 53.3 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Troy win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Troy -13.2 · market Troy -16 · difference -2.8 pts (Troy view)
- Total
- model 52.3 · market 52.75 · difference -0.5
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Sam Houston than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Sam Houston 19.5, Troy 32.8 | Troy 81%right winner | 10.2 | 7.3 |
| New formula | Sam Houston 17.2, Troy 36.9 | Troy 87%right winner | 16.6 | 9.1 |
Final: Sam Houston 21, Troy 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Sam Houston vs Troy: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Sam Houston | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.8#127 | 23.5#96 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.8#133 | 23.9#59 |
| Yards per play | 5.27#115 | 4.86#131 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.11#134 | 5.93#85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 149.2#90 | 125.6#121 |
| Net passing yards per game | 183.8#109 | 195.8#98 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.3#121 | 192.0#114 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 279.0#132 | 200.4#42 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33#110 | 1.00#67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17#56 | 1.14#61 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#96 | 2.43#29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#125 | 4.21#136 |
| Stat | Sam Houston | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12#129 | -0.04#113 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#100 | -0.07#28 |
| Success rate | 38.1%#116 | 39.6%#108 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.3%#127 | 39.5%#44 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#96 | 11.1%#108 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.9%#134 | 13.3%#103 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#83 | 13.4%#48 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.0%#132 | 16.0%#133 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.03#129 | 4.13#46 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.94#76 | 3.43#23 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#118 | own 32#23 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#116 | own 30#83 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.2#108 | 66.1#70 |
| Stat | Sam Houston | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#104 | -0.07#117 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.20#133 | -0.01#89 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#50 | -0.03#45 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14#113 | -0.13#22 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.3%#107 | 38.4%#114 |
| Passing success rate | 34.7%#122 | 37.8%#105 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.2%#131 | 23.4%#132 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.5%#132 | 28.4%#87 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.9%#119 | 27.9%#43 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.9%#136 | 39.5%#87 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.3%#131 | 40.6%#70 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.1%#135 | 66.5%#38 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.2%#63 | 48.7%#13 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sam Houston schedule · Troy schedule · all Week 1 projections
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