Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alabama State 36, Texas Southern 17 at Shell Energy Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: Alabama State wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.5 points and 53.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Alabama State is 4-3 against the 162nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+7.8 per game). Texas Southern is 2-5 against the 138th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.9 and allowing 43 points per game (-18.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama State by 42 and Texas Southern by 3 about 80% of the time.
Texas Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alabama State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Alabama State vs Texas Southern: stat comparison
| Stat | Alabama State | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7 | 24.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.9 | 43.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.10 | 5.50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.45 | 6.32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.0 | 183.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 120.3 | 163.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 173.0 | 198.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 169.6 | 216.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14 | 0.71 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29 | 3.14 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.14 |
| Success rate | 39.4% | 38.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2% | 46.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7% | 13.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1% | 14.9% |
| Havoc rate | 16.1% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.6% | 17.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.43 | 3.53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.33 | 5.09 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 23 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 18 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.7 | 63.0 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.7% | 42.1% |
| Passing success rate | 39.0% | 34.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.3% | 18.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.8% | 28.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4% | 32.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.8% | 37.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.0% | 45.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.4% | 53.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.2% | 72.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama State schedule · Texas Southern schedule · all Week 10 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.