Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama State 37.4, Lane 22.4 at ASU Football Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Alabama State wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15 points and 59.7 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Lane has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Alabama State is 1-0, scoring 30 and allowing 17 points per game (+13 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lane by 8 and Alabama State by 38 about 80% of the time.
Alabama State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama State by about 12.9.
Result: Lane 0, Alabama State 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19 points and the total by 25.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lane 22.4, Alabama State 37.4 | Alabama State 84%right winner | 19.0 | 25.7 |
| New formula | Lane 11.5, Alabama State 45.6 | Alabama State 98%right winner | 0.1 | 23.1 |
Final: Lane 0, Alabama State 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lane vs Alabama State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lane | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 7.0 | 42.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 49.0 | 21.4 |
| Yards per play | 3.33 | 8.09 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.71 | 5.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 113.0 | 227.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 67.0 | 268.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 180.0 | 216.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 197.0 | 200.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 3.00 | 0.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.82 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 1.09 |
| Stat | Lane | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.27 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 37.2% | 50.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6% | 47.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 18.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 13.7% | 10.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.6% | 8.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 4.18 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.28 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.0 | 61.4 |
| Stat | Lane | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.18 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.37 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 15.8% | 52.6% |
| Passing success rate | 31.3% | 56.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.7% | 15.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4% | 39.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.5% | 35.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 16.7% | 50.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3% | 48.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | — | 68.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 66.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lane schedule · Alabama State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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