Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama State 35.3, Florida A&M 15.4 at ASU Football Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Alabama State wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.9 points and 50.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Florida A&M is 1-4, scoring 17.4 and allowing 36.8 points per game (-19.4 per game). Alabama State is 3-2, scoring 26.4 and allowing 16.4 points per game (+10 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida A&M by 3 and Alabama State by 42 about 80% of the time.
Alabama State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama State by about 17.8.
Result: Florida A&M 28, Alabama State 27. Florida A&M won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 20.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida A&M / Alabama State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama State -14.5 | 53.5 → 47.5 | +473 / -720 |
| DraftKings | Alabama State -14.5 | 53.5 → 47.5 | +473 / -720 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Alabama State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama State -20 | 50.6 | 90% |
| Market consensus | Alabama State -14.5 | 47.5 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Alabama State -15.5 | 48.7 | 85% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Alabama State win probability
- model 90% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama State -19.9 · market Alabama State -14.5 · difference +5.4 pts (Alabama State view)
- Total
- model 50.6 · market 47.5 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 5.4 pts more toward Alabama State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida A&M 15.4, Alabama State 35.3 | Alabama State 90%wrong winner | 20.9 | 4.4 |
| New formula | Florida A&M 15.5, Alabama State 35.6 | Alabama State 91%wrong winner | 21.1 | 3.9 |
Final: Florida A&M 28, Alabama State 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida A&M vs Alabama State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Florida A&M | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3 | 42.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.8 | 21.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.56 | 8.09 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.51 | 5.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.9 | 227.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.0 | 268.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 194.9 | 216.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 240.1 | 200.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.70 | 0.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.30 | 1.82 |
| Sacks per game | 1.10 | 1.64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.20 | 1.09 |
| Stat | Florida A&M | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.27 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 38.3% | 50.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.3% | 47.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.0% | 18.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.9% | 10.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3% | 8.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.24 | 4.18 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.64 | 4.28 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.6 | 61.4 |
| Stat | Florida A&M | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.18 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.37 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.27 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8% | 52.6% |
| Passing success rate | 38.6% | 56.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.3% | 15.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4% | 39.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.6% | 35.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.1% | 48.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.8% | 68.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.1% | 66.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida A&M schedule · Alabama State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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