Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alabama State 26, Jackson State 25 at ASU Football Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Alabama State wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 50.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Jackson State is 6-2 against the 140th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.6 and allowing 22 points per game (+13.6 per game). Alabama State is 4-3 against the 124th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+7.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jackson State by 21 and Alabama State by 24 about 80% of the time.
Alabama State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Jackson State would be favoured by 0.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Jackson State vs Alabama State: stat comparison
| Stat | Jackson State | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.6 | 25.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0 | 17.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.58 | 5.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.18 | 5.45 |
| Rushing yards per game | 209.5 | 164.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 235.6 | 120.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.8 | 173.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.5 | 169.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63 | 0.86 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 | 1.14 |
| Sacks per game | 2.13 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.29 |
| Stat | Jackson State | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 41.3% | 39.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 40.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8% | 10.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0% | 11.1% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 16.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 12.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.43 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.33 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.6 | 55.7 |
| Stat | Jackson State | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18 | -0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.7% | 40.7% |
| Passing success rate | 40.3% | 39.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.6% | 19.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8% | 22.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.5% | 29.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.7% | 33.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.5% | 33.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 50.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 49.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Jackson State schedule · Alabama State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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