Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alcorn State 34, Southern 28 at A.W. Mumford Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Alcorn State wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 61.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Alcorn State is 4-4 against the 137th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.9 and allowing 37 points per game (+4.9 per game). Southern is 3-5 against the 66th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.9 and allowing 33.4 points per game (-10.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alcorn State by 28 and Southern by 17 about 80% of the time.
Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alcorn State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Alcorn State vs Southern: stat comparison
| Stat | Alcorn State | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.9 | 22.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.0 | 33.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.84 | 5.21 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.33 | 6.93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.0 | 183.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 316.3 | 158.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.5 | 230.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.1 | 186.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 1.63 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 43.5% | 36.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 42.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7% | 10.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 12.8% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 11.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.38 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.71 | 4.59 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.5 | 65.6 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20 | -0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | -0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.0% | 37.0% |
| Passing success rate | 44.8% | 35.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4% | 17.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.7% | 25.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.8% | 30.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.3% | 36.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8% | 39.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.1% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.7% | 76.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alcorn State schedule · Southern schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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