Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jackson State 41.9, Southern 16.4 at Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Jackson State wins about 95% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 25.5 points and 58.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Southern is 2-2, scoring 26.8 and allowing 38.3 points per game (-11.5 per game). Jackson State is 3-0, scoring 44.3 and allowing 15 points per game (+29.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jackson State by 3 and Jackson State by 48 about 80% of the time.
Jackson State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jackson State by about 23.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southern 17, Jackson State 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.5 points and the total by 6.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern / Jackson State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Jackson State -20.5 | 57.5 | +710 / -1340 |
| DraftKings | Jackson State -20.5 | 57.5 | +710 / -1340 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Jackson State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Jackson State -25.5 | 58.2 | 95% |
| Market consensus | Jackson State -20.5 | 57.5 | 88% |
| Blended projection | Jackson State -21.5 | 57.8 | 93% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Jackson State win probability
- model 95% · market (no-vig) 88% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Jackson State -25.5 · market Jackson State -20.5 · difference +5.0 pts (Jackson State view)
- Total
- model 58.2 · market 57.5 · difference +0.7
Model margin is 5.0 pts more toward Jackson State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern 16.4, Jackson State 41.9 | Jackson State 95%right winner | 7.5 | 6.2 |
| New formula | Southern 16.3, Jackson State 41.5 | Jackson State 95%right winner | 7.2 | 5.8 |
Final: Southern 17, Jackson State 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern vs Jackson State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southern | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.6 | 32.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.1 | 18.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.58 | 7.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 5.89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.5 | 260.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.4 | 211.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.0 | 129.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 225.6 | 223.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.27 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 1.82 | 1.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.18 | 1.08 |
| Stat | Southern | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 37.9% | 44.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 41.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3% | 13.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2% | 11.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.22 | 3.71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.64 | 2.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Southern | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.5% | 50.8% |
| Passing success rate | 35.2% | 43.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6% | 17.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.8% | 31.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.9% | 30.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1% | 50.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.1% | 35.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.5% | 63.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 78.3% | 64.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern schedule · Jackson State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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